Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 210.78

-4.8%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: chomolungma who wrote (82952)	6/19/2002 3:50:51 PM
From: Jim McMannis	of 275872

RE:"Is Hammer going to be good enough to stop AMD's downward spiral?" AMD has again put themselves in a position where the next generation (K-8) has to step up and hit the home run...just like the K7 did. There are some similarities....some differences. When the K7 was introduced there was literally no infrastructure for 3 months, only a chipset AMD750-100mhz bus and a reference motherboard called fester. FIC was the first motherboard followed by Asus and MSI. All this greatly slowed the acceptance of K7...and as you know, time is of the essence because Intel doesn't sit still. As for Hammer, there are already numerous chipsets announced and many motherboards. nVidia even canceled their latest nForce chipset for K7 in favor of a nForce Hammer chipset. These companies have seen Hammer, leading me to believe it must look pretty good. Now, look at what Intel is doing now vs then. About the time K7 arrived is about the time Intel started having trouble with Rambus, Camino chipset, MTH hub, even the "to be released P4 was stuck with Rambus". No longer the case. Intel has ported to SDRAM and DDR...P4 has headroom and AMD will no longer be able to capitalize on that Intel slip up. What about speed at that time? Well, like now with the K7, the K6-2 had long run out of gas and the Pentiums were distancing themselves from K6 in Mhz. When the K7 came out it easily matched the Pentiums in speed with more headroom. AMD enjoyed dangling that carrot. This is the time when AMD started to take market share back. The K7 also enjoyed an IPC advantage. So what about Hammer...? Unlike K7, Hammer will not enjoy a Mhz advantage on P4...right from the start. This is a negative. Sure, it will likely have a heck of a PR rating advantage but that's not as good as raw Mhz marketing wise. So AMD needs to work on that. Intel won't sit still either, they will pull out all the benchmarks they can. I think the jury's still out on just how well AMD can get 64 bit computing across. So what do you do...? If you belive Hammer will save AMD's ASPs...buy sometime this summer and hold. Jim

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