My personal estimate of how MSTG will end the year - so take it for what it's worth:
1999 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4(Est) FY99(Est)
Revenue: 772,982 803,109 1,028,566 1,313,200 3,917,937
(+86%) (+95%)
Customers
Added: 40 45 65 95 245
Revenue/
Customer
Added: 19,325 17,847 15,824 13,824 15,991
Assumptions:
- The "Customers Added" info is obtained directly from or interpolated from MSTG's new releases.
- The "Revenues" figures are taken directly from MSTG's SEC filings.
- My estimated "Customers Added" figure of 95 for Q4 is based on MSTG's news release of 12/9/99
stating 375 customers. This results in 85 customers added to date in Q4. I assumed 10 add'l
customers would be added before year end.
- The "Revenues / Customer Added" assumes that all revenues for FY99 have been derived from adding
new customers who purchased Mustang Message Center. I think MSTG's SEC filings support this assumption.
- The "Revenues / Customer Added" have been decreasing each Q at a fairly linear rate. I therefore
assumed this figure would continue to decline into Q4 at a similar rate as previous Quarters.
- Finally, the Q4 estimated Revenue is arrived at by multiplying the est. # of "Customers Added"
in the quarter (95) by the "Revenue / Customer Added" estimate for the quarter ($13,824).
I think this is a fair, possibly conservative estimate since the company seems to be starting
to offer turnkey solutions with longer revenue streams.
MSTG should be valued much higher than it's measley $70M (+/-) market capitalization.
mike |
