I have never tried QGLY's product, but used the pure form of zinc. I agree with you that if the benefits are equivalent, QGLY will do better as lozenges should have more consumer acceptance. Given that the actual viruses grow in the nose, however, it seems plausible, and even likely, that administering doses directly to the nose could be more effective. Thus the claim that Zicam reduces the duration of the cold to 1.5 days as compared to the lozenge which claim to reduce the duration to 4.4 days is plausible. If the nasal application is highly effective, and is significantly more effective than other alternatives, I believe that the product will overcome the method of usage. If it couldn't, no one would buy suppositories, either. <VBG>
I also agree with two other points in your post. First of all, I agree that ultimately the performance of the company will determine the stock price, and that all the hype won't matter in the long run. I also agree that the stock performance of QGLY is relevant, and that the QGLY performance is a strong limiting factor for GUMM. If QGLY hadn't preceded it, GUMM could well have gone to 100, but due to QGLY expectations have been tempered. The fact that QGLY initially had good sales, but that they have since fallen significantly is a good cause to question this whole area.
The other big question mark, besides the ability of GUMM to actually sell the product is of course the patent suit brought by QGLY.
I will probably continue to hold my small position in GUMM for a few months and see how sales go for the next quarter or two.
Good luck, and thanks for the dialog,
Carl |
