CJ -- OT
Two things. First, glad to see CPQ respond promptly and to the points of greatest damage from the SSB statement, in essence refuting the analysis with very few words. CPQ should do fine today. Wonder what the weasel will say now to justify his purposefully polemic and manipulatory remarks?
Second, I had purchased very few shares of CTXS at 51 on Thursday, double the amount at 41 on Friday, the day before the warning, and just recently added a lot more to bring my average down to 23.6. The stock reflected 17.5 yesterday but never went there, the lowest being 18. Nevertheless, I see this as a gamble with great upside, should things turn out to be as they look, as the stock is down about 80%. The trailing earnings are growing at 50% and the forward earnings between 25%-50% depending on who you listen; the trailing P/E is under 30 and the forward P/E as well, and the window dressing has taken its toll. With earnings coming out on 7/19/00, I think the Company has a good opportunity to make the analysts feel better -- despite owning 50% of the market, Citrix left analysts hanging and they lost their shirts when the warning came out. Volatility is high and yesterday, there were very few sellers at the lower prices. While watching Level 2 I noticed MM putting in orders and then removing them while trying to bring the price down, so accumulation is taking place and frustration will get the best of the weak hands soon. Nonetheless, it will not recover very quickly, IMO, since the volume was so big so many days in a row.
I have been following NOK and it is attractive, but the money flow coming out of it is very big -- check the WSJ interactive edition data from last night below.
We're too far from Al's decision to raise or not to raise rates again. He won't know until he sees a couple of months worth of data and this is just an excuse to sell into a holiday weekend, as it happens every year. Sometimes we get a small rally on the Friday preceeding it by bargain hunters, but typically it comes back with a vengence after the holiday. Let's hope for that again this year.
Thanks anyway.
Thursday, June 29, 2000
Money Flow
Uptick vs. Downtick Trading by Dollar Volume
5 p.m. EDT
Thursday, June 29, 2000
MARKET Money Previous Up/Down
Flow** Day Ratio
DJIA * -49.7 +35.9 97/100
Blocks -26.6 +278.3 98/100
DJ Global-US * +209.0 +86.8 102/100
Blocks -6.2 -710.2 100/100
S&P 500 * +184.3 +154.7 102/100
Blocks +94.3 -389.3 101/100
Russell 2000 * +55.8 +70.4 102/100
Blocks +133.1 +27.9 113/100
Money Flow
ISSUE GAINERS Close (in millions) Ratio
LillyEli (N) 101.688 +495.5 234/100
DellCptr (Nq) 48.375 +76.2 144/100
BrisMyrsSqb (N) 57.938 +75.9 194/100
WorldCom (Nq) 44.063 +66.1 123/100
AmOnline (N) 52.000 +54.2 140/100
MerLy (N) 117.188 +52.9 227/100
MicronTch (N) 90.813 +51.8 147/100
HCA (N) 32.438 +51.5 285/100
JohnsJohns (N) 98.563 +48.0 157/100
Merck (N) 74.313 +45.6 157/100
IBM (N) 113.813 +45.0 123/100
ProvdnFnl (N) 92.938 +45.0 183/100
Metlife (N) 21.313 +38.4 567/100
SprintPCS (N) 59.125 +37.2 225/100
CyprsSemi (N) 42.563 +35.1 174/100
Money Flow
ISSUE DECLINERS Close (in millions) Ratio
NASDAQ100 (A) 91.875 -353.8 54/100
Nokia (N) 48.563 -320.8 40/100
Unisys (N) 14.563 -151.8 19/100
Compaq (N) 25.125 -147.2 58/100
Motorola (N) 29.250 -138.1 29/100
Mallinckrodt (N) 43.563 -135.5 31/100
TX Instr (N) 69.188 -107.6 51/100
CiscoSys (Nq) 61.188 -98.9 83/100
LucentTch (N) 56.438 -68.7 59/100
AT&T (N) 32.125 -56.3 60/100
Pfizer (N) 46.250 -53.4 75/100
SycmrNtwk (Nq) 100.750 -51.7 78/100
NortelNtwks (N) 68.000 -48.4 75/100
SprintFON (N) 54.750 -44.5 72/100
LSI Logic (N) 53.750 -44.5 62/100
Source: Dow Jones
* - without block trades.
** - in millions
Moneyflow figures are the dollar value of composite uptick trades minus the dollar value of downtick trades. The up/down ratio reflects the value of uptick trades relative to the value of downtick trades.
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