limtex, Steve B and others:
I cannot let statements indicating we are facing the
worst market downturn or economic crisis in history
unchallenged. I was not around during the great depression,
but I was around during the 73-74 period. During this
time span all three economic blocks (US, Japan, Europe)
went into recession at the same time. Commodity price
inflation (oil and others) went through the roof,
unions had a stranglehold over the US and European
economies, government regulation and price controls
were stifling many sectors of the economy which have
been since deregulated (oil, gas, airlines, telco,
banking, securities, utilities), government deficits
were increasing... There is no way on earth that the current
situation where two of the 3 economic blocks (US and Europe)
are healthy is comparable. We have not been in a recession
since 90-91, so a 99 recession is quite possible, accompanied
by the normal decline in stock prices (in the tech sector
most of the decline is behind us), but calling this
period the worst in history is completely unjustified.
As Gentleman-Boyle pointed out on the Yahoo thread,
a recession would not be the end of the world for WCII, since
RBOCS would probably slow down their xDSL capital
expenditures. Competitors such as ARTT would find
it difficult to raise capital. Please remember that
although the 70s and early 80s were marked by
economic stagnation and decline, it is during this
period that the cable companies and competitive
long distance carriers (MCI and Sprint) built
their businesses. So, companies with superior business
plans can succeed in any economic environment.
Best regards,
Bernard Levy |
