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Politics : RAMTRONIAN's Cache Inn
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To: NightOwl who started this subject7/17/2002 2:10:24 AM
From: NightOwl   of 14464
 
I have a couple of thoughts I'd like to throw out for any comments you folks may have:

1. IFX has joined Agere and MOT to compete against TXN in its core DSP business.

2. RMTR is working 24x7 with TXN to develop the mother of all embeddable FRAMS.

3. IFX is no longer bound by the standstill deal that precluded their acquiring more shares of RMTR.

4. IFX has its foot in both the MRAM and FRAM camps.

5. RMTR has @38-40 mil (by my bare recollection) treasury shares that it can't use because (a) that's not many, and (b) they aren't worth much on today's market.

Assuming RMTR's business with TXN proves fruitful, I don't think that TXN would much cotton to IFX buying up RMTR's IP. By the same token its unlikely that IFX would appreciate or "approve" any vote of the board for a sale to TXN (or any other competitor) unless they got a "special" premium large enough to offset the loss of a "potential" DRAM replacement. I don't see anyone being willing to pay that much even if the "potential" becomes reality.

Am I way off base in thinking that this Mutual Assured Opposition ("MAO") will prevent anyone in the business from buying out RMTR if its "successful?"

I'm thinking that IFX will hold onto their RMTR shares until they can get a "fair" return on their $30 mil in the market and then sell. But I think this "overhang" is going to hold the stock price down to some degree until IFX's long term "plans" with RMTR are made known, which I suspect won't be for some time. ...At least until they know whether or not FRAM will in fact grow to rival Flash and then DRAM.

I'm thinking that it also means that both RMTR and IFX would love to see the stock price rise to multiple split levels. Thereby maximizing the worth of their (and our) respective shares substantially.

Aside from the overhang, and the MAO it brings with it, I don't see much downside. Of course if TXN and the other licensees don't produce winners, none of this will matter. But if any of them break through to reproduce The Grail, or at least a credible replacement for Flash, there seems to be plenty of room for everyone to profit.

Frankly I am now prepared to declare victory and collect the "Prize." But am I missing some aspect of this MAO? ...Maybe I have endured too much "lack of faith" from the likes of INTC, IBM and ST-M, but in my heart of hearts I find it very difficult to trust any of these partners and licensees.

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