Mathematical Case for Immediate Kerry Concession:
Fact: With 99% reporting in PA and 100% precincts reporting in OH, Bush has higher margin of victory in OH than Kerry has in PA.
Fact: Given that Bush's lead is 136,221 votes, and assuming the Dems estimate of 200,000 provisional ballots is correct, Kerry would have to win the provisional ballots 168,111-31,889 (84%-16%) to go ahead by 1 vote. To throw it into an automatic recount Kerry would have to win the provisional ballots 153,979-46,021 (77%-23%). If Kerry were to get these outsized margins in the provisional ballots, it would make the provisional ballots immediately suspect because of the unbelievable skew. On top of all this, the he OH Secretary of State seemed to think the final number of provisional ballots would be closer to 175,000 (and that was the high-end estimate), so the Kerry campaign's estimate of 200,000 provisional ballots appears to have been exaggerated. Mathematically, Kerry's odds of defeating Bush border on statistically impossible.
This isn't even remotely like Florida. The Bush margin of victory is much, much larger than Bush's margin on the first count in FL on election night 2000.
Bottom line: Kerry needs to concede to avoid embarrasing himself and his party further. Continuing to hang on with such ridiculous odds is very unstatesmanlike. If Bush wanted to play this game, he could also refuse to concede PA. I'm sure there are plenty of cases the Bush team could bring forward in PA to claim some sort of legal unfairness (or anywhere else that's within 1%). It's game, set, match, and Kerry's beginning to look like a spoiled teenager who didn't get his way.
Here are the numbers with 99% PA precincts reporting and 100% of OH precincts reporting:
PA Kerry 2,868,674 51.0847%
Bush 2,746,856 48.9153%
5,615,530 2.1693% Margin of victory
OH Bush 2,794,346 51.2492%
Kerry 2,658,125 48.7508%
5,452,471 2.4983% Margin of victory
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