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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 683.04

-0.1%

Dec 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83606)	1/3/2003 1:07:32 AM
From: Psycho-Social	of 99985

The Fear Factor: It's a quantitative measurement of the intensity of the fear of terrorism against U.S. citizens, especially domestic terrorism. It tends to lead the broad Stock Market by 3-5 weeks. I developed it last June, and use a sampling of news in the financial media to compile it each week. To clarify what I said about its recent trends: It has been trending upwards (meaning fear has been lessening) since it's most recent lows around Nov 14th and Nov 25th. This implies that the mid-Dec lows should hold and we should continue higher from here (but not necessarily through the end of January).

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