SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 685.66+0.2%Dec 5 4:00 PM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: StormRider who wrote (83627)1/14/2003 9:31:24 PM
From: UnBelievable   of 99985
 
"The prominent forecast for the stock market in 2003 is that odds of a fourth consecutive year of negative losses are low. It has happened only once in over 100 years."

It would seem that the odds of a fourth down year are 50 -50 since in the year after the prior two 3 year down cycles one was up and one was down.

It seems ridiculous not to realize that the initial conditions of a fourth down year are the fact that it follows three down years.

Of course the probability of a fourth down year is infinitely higher than it was last year.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News