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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 689.52

-0.3%

Jan 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who started this subject	4/23/2003 5:41:18 PM
From: Psycho-Social	of 99985

Cash is King! The Fear Factor seems to have peaked (Meaning national fear is at a low ebb) about a week ago. My contrarian indicators, particularly Mutual Fund Cash Flows and Business Sentiment, are showing a high degree of investor and analyst optimism. As a result, I've sold the last of my equity positions, an S&P index fund containing about 22% of my investable assets. According to the way the Fear Factor usually behaves, we should have a short term pullback, then a final upleg that carries us a little above current levels. This should be 3-5 wks after the Fear Factor peak,i.e. in the first half of May. Because the contrarian indicators are getting significantly overbought, I'm content now to watch from the sidelines, and let someone else try to capture the final 2-4% of the rally.

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