Great Post Fred: You said it all so well, as did Michael T. Currie and Norms.
Folks: First off we passed another important milestone yesterday. Together we made well over 100 posts today making this a very active thread, but in reading through these posts today, I am somewhat troubled. Firstly, when a market goes up as strongly as FNTN did today, on no news or bad news, (if you call a two day delay caused by an externally perpetrated event, bad news), invariably you are dealing with an incredibly powerful situation. In spite of this there seems to be a high level of anxiety over this almost meaningless mishap in the major scheme of things. I may have used the wrong word when when I said incinerated. People tend to refer to modems as being fried due to electrical shorts etc. My understanding was that that the external problem may have inadvertently led to the internal problems.
I was informed that the fiber optic sector would be repaired within hours or over the weekend. It was. The remaining problem was expected to be rectified by Monday or Tuesday, so I would have to conclude from this, that we are very close indeed to all systems go. In addition, I was assured that reasonable measures were being taken to put into place alternative systems to prevent future mishaps, or try and enable them to be bypassed. I did not really appreciate having to break the bad news to you all in the first place, much less be grilled over it. Trying to grab accurate details from a hurried 30 second phone conversation and attempting to relate them to you intelligently in technical terms is not my forte.
Secondly, none of us have any degree of control whatsoever as to what the management are doing day by day or hour by hour in their urgency to accomplish their objectives and achieve their goals, save wasting their time by plaguing them with numerous phone calls or peppering them with E-mails. I feel guilty about that myself. Once again, the tendency to want to micro-manage the company from the Internet is creeping back in. As Tomato Man said a few thousand hours ago, when the stock was .25 cents: Stay out of the kitchen and let the chefs get on with preparing the banquet. How goes the banquet so far? Not bad for starters with the tomato souffle's going for .81 cents.
The only other control you can exercise is to buy more shares or sell and get out. Whilst I am not suggesting you do any of those things, the latter option could turn out to be a very costly mistake, if the lessons of yesterday's posts ring true and many of the high expectations for FNTN are borne out. Most investments involve the comparison of risk versus reward. As you so rightly point out Fred: In this case, the reward appears to have exceptional potential to outweigh the risk, to such an extent that it may require a different set of criteria from the norm to asses and evaluate the consequences. For those who have lamented a hundred times over for selling too early and others who still feel uneasy, the most important thing that occurred today, was that their risk in this issue was unexpectedly and dramatically reduced. That is a huge psychological positive for everyone here. If they cannot appreciate this fact, maybe this type of investment does not suit their mentality.
Thirdly, as I have stated before, the hardest task on the Planet is staying with a winner. Almost every day in the life of this stock, since it made its low last October at 14 cents, somebody has come up with a reason to sell, or has created doubt and uncertainty and shouted it from the roof-tops. Make no mistake, this will continue and it may get worse. Whether you choose to ignore it or act upon it, is what will ultimately determine who ends up richer or less fortunate, if the stock runs its expected course to significantly greater levels, whatever they may be.
A few years ago, long after I took my puny 60% profit on Citicorp in less than two months, when it could have been 600% in two years, I saw a guy on Wall St Week who made what has become for me an indelible proclamation: 'Never sell a winner'. Friends: How do you think Warren Buffet got to be so rich? Because he goes one better, he almost never sells! He's not infallible either, after all he rode US Air almost into the ground before it finally found a bottom almost as low as FNTN is today and recovered to become one of the most spectacular turnarounds in history. He too had to suffer a lot of grief with Solomon Brothers, before it finally tripled in price. Well, we've all had to endure our share of grief with many a stocks including this one, but after today's relentlessly bullish action, having broken out so convincingly, it now appears destined to be locked in a powerful uptrend that may last for some time.
And fourthly, because of this, I am prepared to stick my neck out and wholeheartedly declare that I believe we are in the emerging stages of what looks to be an ultra-powerful third wave megatrend in the making. Why am I proclaiming this? Principally because on top of the rather unusual and potentially very powerful 'triple 1 - 2 pennant formations' that usually precede an exceptionally strong third wave, we are also exhibiting all the classic signs of a third wave liftoff. For Example, widespread disbelief, doubts and fears and the main fact that it emanated from an unconventional bottom formation that was somehow, 'not right'.
Now factor in the words of wisdom from Michael T Currie yesterday and everyone else for that matter and it kinda completes the picture. He mentioned a stock named Cryogenics Solutions Inc (CYGS). If you want to see what a real third wave looks like, check it out. This formation is only a double 1 - 2 and the third wave already took it from around 30 cents to over $3 for an almost unstoppable 1000% ride, thus far. Folks, that's the other thing about third waves, you never know how long or strong they're going to be, but they are usually longer and stronger than anyone ever dreams, as holders of the likes of Dell can honestly testify to.
The interesting lesson in this story is that there are some fascinating parallels between CYGS and FNTN. They both have similar highs and structures and guess what, notice how CYGS broke into a lower base to fool everyone before it took off like like and F-15 in June. I would suggest to you that there is a reasonable argument that FNTN is at the very beginning of a similar trajectory, that on the same scale, should take us to at least $5, (and I wasn't the first to come up with that figure). If CYGS continues on its present course and actually re-tests or exceeds its old highs at $7.5, I think it will more than validate what FNTN is also capable of doing later on, as I alluded to in recent posts.
Opportunities like this don't come around that often, that's why I'm here and probably the rest of us too. We've all invested a great deal of time and varying amounts of hard earned money and everyone wants to make the most of it. Today as we drew towards the close, the market or the market makers showed their hand to us for the first time in a while. This happens quite a lot on the NYSE if traders sense a gap opening the next day. There is usually a rush to get out at any price near the close. This happened with Eastman Kodak the other day before it gapped 6 and closed up 8 3 / 4 the next day. Sometimes, as today when the daily range is edging higher on expanding volume the MM's hope that it will close off the highs and dip, so they can cover any exposed short positions they may have. It is apparent to me that over the last few days, some of them have been scale up selling, hoping the stock would drop and they could get out with a profit. When it became obvious late today, that this was not going to happen, there was near buying panic that swept in at the close, with little chance of exiting out of a large position.
In my estimation based on some rule of thumb comparisons and in answer to those who asked a few days ago: Who would be selling when they were buying? (Correctly as it turned out). It was probably professionals selling short in expectations of making a huge killing and right now I would place the number of shares short as estimated to be in excess of one million. With my estimation of closer to eight million SI labeled shares in the hands of the stronger and longer term element that resides here: Out of a float of 11 million, that leaves two million free trading. Possibly three quarters of them could be solid long term holders, which leaves FNTN in a very tight situation indeed as evidenced by todays dramatic activity.
The extent to which the price of FNTN will eventually rise, will ultimately be determined on how willing we all are to part with our hard held shares at our own perceived levels of value. As many seasoned posters have already expressed today, 'I think we've got a winner here' or words to that effect. Remember Wall St week, the Oracle of Omaha, Michael T. Currie and Norms as they strongly counseled all yesterday of their own recent experiences in selling too early . We all can learn a lot from these stories and all the others we have heard in the last few months.
The lesson is: Don't blow it, if you really believe in this story it is up to you to decide how far you can run with it. You and only you have the power to exercise that control over your emotions: To buy more, sit tight or sell and maybe suffer the consequences.
But remember this, once you have sold its very very difficult, if not psychologically impossible to buy back one's position in a raging market, should that become the case for FNTN, as it already has for a hundred other Internet Stocks...
And finally, remember these are exceptional times for the markets, the Internet and FNTN too, which may be poised in the right place at just the right time.
By definition, we are in a major explosive bull market, on Wall Street, in Internet Stocks and as evidence by the structure and recent activity, in FNTN itself.
Also by definition, in a real bull market, the surprises are almost always on the upside. I think you'll agree most were surprised yesterday. So far so good...
Bull market intact, case proven
Good Fortune to all
Rgds
Wiz |
