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Gold/Mining/Energy : North American Palladium(AMEX:PAL)- PGM Producer

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To: GeoDude who wrote (838)1/11/2001 10:11:22 AM
From: Bruce Robbins   of 976
 
LIA: You can look at price spike in any metal historically and see that they never last very long. BUT, all of the other metals have large reserve bases (marginal mines that can be brought into production etc), scrap components etc that can be drawn on. PGEs do not have a large reserve base- there are very few mines in production and very few places that have potential to be mines. There is a large scrap component to PGMs which will add to the supply this year- how much is anybody's guess. I can just imagine the number of scrap auto dealers scrambling to cut those Pd autocatalysts off quickly right now and feed them to JM <g>. As for what is stockpiled, there can't be much seeing as there has been a market deficit fed by the stockpile over the past three years. Perhaps that has something to do with price spike. The biggest component of change IMO will be demand. The automakers will try to get Pt-Pd autocatalysts out sooner than later, but both metals are in a similar situation. I am not aware of any effective non-PGE autocatalysts. In brief, unless the environmental regulations change on auto emissions, I do not think use in autocatalysts will drop. BUT with fewer cars being produced this year, demand should drop off. BUT not all automobiles and trucks are up to code and so that might offset the drop in demand. My prediction is that at some point Pd will drop in price and Pt will rise in price. Perhaps they will meet somewhere in the middle. I do not foresee Pd at below $300 for the next few years however.

Bruce
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