I'll give it some thought and try and get back to you. Just don't have the inclination right now. I did find this article which I think you will enjoy related to the subject though.
Cracking the Democrat coalition
renewamerica.us
Fred Hutchison
October 23, 2004
The presidential election campaign of 2000 revealed two parties of roughly equal popularity. Both parties are coalitions delicately stitched together from many groups of ideas, people and interests. These coalitions are fragile. The Democrat coalition has long relied upon a stable block of black voters who can be trusted to render to the Democrats more than 90% of their vote. Neither Presidents Clinton nor Carter could have won the election without a solid block of black votes. If the loyalty of black voters to the Democrats were to wane, would the Democratic party become the minority party? Maybe, and maybe not.
Breaking the Block
A recent poll by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies indicates that 69% percent of black voters support John Kerry and 18% support Bush. A similar poll just before the election of 2000, showed a 74% black vote for Al Gore and 9% for Bush. In the election of 2000, Gore got 90% and Bush got 9%. Bush's black support has doubled in the four years since the prior election. This could make a difference in the close races in the Great Lakes swing states which have big cities with many blacks. In a close race, a few victories in these swing states could give Bush an electoral victory.
If this is the beginning of the breakdown of the black voting block, it might also be the beginning of an era of Republican dominance. However, before we leap to conclusions, let us to analyze the surge of black support for Bush and see if the underlying factors are likely to be permanent and the trend is likely to continue. Then, we ought to consider whether the lost black Democratic votes are likely to be replaced by other groups of voters.
Blacks and the Culture War
Since the last election, the pastors of Black Evangelical churches have taken serious notice of several issues in the culture war. The Democrats are defining gay marriage as a civil rights issue. Black pastors of conservative biblical theology and other black spokesmen reject the notion of a parallel between the civil rights movement and the gay marriage movement. Skin color which one inherits does not equate with the sin of sexual perversion. A black liberal recently told me that he opposes gay marriage based on his religious convictions and is willing to join conservatives in a fight against gay marriage. He did not make it clear whether he would vote Republican.
Of late, some black spokesmen have expressed their fears that the black community in America may vanish because of abortion. Abortion can become a form of collective suicide. Therefore, parts of the black community have become increasingly anti-abortion. It stands to reason that some blacks might stand with conservative Republicans against abortion.
Criticism of ignorant black youth and their weak parents by Bill Cosby, and criticism of gansta rap and hip hop culture by Bill O'Reilly, has reinforced the message of those leaders in the black community who are preaching education, responsibility and self-reliance. This works against the ghetto culture of victimization, dependency and entitlement which the Democrats play to.
Black identity politics stigmatizes blacks who defect to the Republican side as traitors and "Uncle Toms." When a black friend of mine started talking this way about a black Republican, I told him that I was going to defend black people against his racism against his own people. My point was that ideas are universal. Black people have all the human faculties of reason, conscience, awareness, and will to embrace or reject ideas on their merits. A black man is an individual, not a puppet of group think politics, and is able to think for himself and prefer some ideas over others. He is able to defy peer pressure if he chooses to do so and seek the truth for himself. To say an individual black cannot sincerely prefer conservative ideas over liberal ideas unless it is a sell-out, is to deny the full humanity of blacks. As blacks integrate into all the niches, nooks and crannies of this society, the old group-think myths of identity politics are bound to weaken, and the natural individually of men is bound to manifest itself. In the long run, this must work against the preservation of the old post Jim Crow black voting block.
In a time of war, many blacks might turn to the presidential choice which seems more likely to serve the interests of national security. Many young blacks have served in the military and defended their country in battle. This might translate into a loyalty to a strong commander in chief of whatever party. Colin Powell is a perfect example of a black military man who laid aside his liberal qualms in order to follow a conservative president in the cause of national security.
The Republican vision involves a society of opportunity, responsibility, and self-reliance. It should not be surprising is that as more blacks take advantage of the opportunity society, more will prefer the Republican party. As the Republican party produces attractive and articulate black candidates for office, more blacks might feel no shame about pulling the Republican lever in the voting booth.
Countervailing Forces
As the Democrats lose black votes, other folks might come into the party to take their place. For every black leaving, there may be a "Log Cabin" (gay) Republican entering. Or, it might be a pro-abortion advocate, or cultural secularist, or atheist, or sexual hedonist moving towards the Democrats. A friend of mine defected to third parties because of his experience of injustice inside of a large corporation and because of his opposition to large deficits. He used to believe in a culture of individual enterprise and self-sufficiency but he got burned and embittered. I fear that the wild corporate spree of crazy takeovers, hasty downsizing, and spurious annual reorganizations has turned some Republican middle managers into Democrats. On the other hand, the millions who are becoming self-employed or are starting their own small business are likely to become more conservative and be more attracted to the Republican Party.
In fine, the loss of black votes will probably not give the Republican party a permanent nationwide boost in electoral vote. However, the culture war, which is drawing some blacks away from the Democrats, might awaken Evangelicals and other Conservative Christians from their long political slumber and impel them to the polls to vote. It might convince some of the Evangelicals who are still Democrats to change parties.
Historical Notes
Prior to the Great Depression, the Republican party was the majority party and had been since the Civil War. As the antislavery party it got most of the black vote. In those days, a majority of Evangelicals voted Democrat partly because of Scotts-Irish Jacksonian political traditions, partly because of the populist movement personified by William Jennings Bryan, an Evangelical, and partly because of the regional nature of post-civil war revival movements. (Interestingly, the powerful Gore family of Tennessee, has very deep roots in political populism.) The New Deal Democrats won the black vote and also retained the loyalty of many Evangelicals. The latter were called "God and Country Democrats." My mother was one of them (in some respects) until the Nixon vs. McGovern campaign when she was disillusioned by the strident anti-war rhetoric of McGovern. She loved Ronald Reagan, and cast her lot with the Republicans.
The Democratic election disasters of McGovern, Dukakis, and Mondale, the misbegotten presidency of Jimmy Carter, and the early phases of the culture war were enough to end Democratic dominance and bring about parity between the two parties. But some Democrats who voted for Nixon, Reagan, and the two Bush presidents have persevered in regarding themselves as Democrats. This phenomena has retarded the emergence of a Republican majority. However, the support of the gay agenda and partial birth abortion by the liberal leaders of the Democratic party may be the last straw for some of the wavering hold outs. The anti-military bias and the Bush-hating cult of liberals is driving others out of the party. The rise of a new gay Democratic voting block will not nearly compensate for those who are holding their noses and heading for the exits of the pro-gay party. Some of those heading for the exists will be Evangelical blacks, eager to tear up their old dog-eared Democratic Party membership cards. |
