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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout
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To: Condor who wrote (8410)3/15/2008 9:52:54 PM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1  Read Replies (4) of 50726
 
Condor,

Regarding POG in one year:

Gold's average gain over the past 7 years was 22%. Since the beginning of 2007 it has gained 55%. This is quite similar to the Nasdaq up to March 1999. Over the following 12 months the Nasdaq doubled. And the next 12 months after that it declined 60%.

If gold doubles over the next year, that would put it at $2000, close to the high of a generation ago, adjusted for inflation. If that happens, then this gold bull run would rank as one of the great speculative bubbles of all time. However it may not go that far. This might be the peak already, and we might be at $500 in one year. I think it could go either way, and I won't try to guess which one.

Enjoy it while it lasts but be prepared for it to end at any time. Buy every dip and sell every rally, until the time comes when it makes a lower low and then fails to make a higher high. Then get out and stay away.

Fun-da-Mental
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