Connecticut Senate: Blumenthal Loses Ground, Leads McMahon By Just Three Points
Wednesday, May 19, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThis.Advertisement
Following a New York Times report that he exaggerated his military record, Democratic Senate hopeful Richard Blumenthal has lost ground in match-ups against all his potential Republican challengers in Connecticut.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Connecticut finds Blumenthal with just a three-point advantage over Linda McMahon, 48% to 45%. Two weeks ago, he led the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment by 13 percentage points. The New York Times story broke late Monday; the survey was taken Tuesday evening.
When matched against former GOP Congressman Rob Simmons, Blumenthal leads by 11 - 50% to 39%. Two weeks ago, the longtime state attorney general held a 23-point lead over Simmons.
Blumenthal now leads Peter Schiff, a high-profile Wall Street investment banker, 53% to 37%. In the previous survey, he posted a 54% to 29% lead over Schiff.
Still, just 26% of voters say Blumenthal should withdraw from the Senate race. Only nine percent (9%) of Democrats hold that view.
However, 53% of voters say “the issue of Blumenthal and his military service” will be at least somewhat important in terms of how they vote. That figure includes 27% who say the issue is Very Important. Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, 25% consider this issue Very Important.
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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Connecticut was conducted on May 18, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Prior to the New York Times story, Blumenthal’s support had never fallen below 52% against any GOP challenger, and no Republican had reached the 40% level of support.
While his support now has fallen against the potential GOP challengers, perceptions of Blumenthal have slipped only modestly. Currently, he is viewed favorably by 66% of voters statewide. That’s down from 72% two weeks ago.
By comparison, 54% have favorable views of both McMahon and Simmons, while 44% say the same of the much less well-known Schiff.
Both major political parties are holding state conventions to begin the candidate nomination process this weekend. Depending upon the results of the conventions, the nominees may not become known until an August 10 primary.
Blumenthal, who was widely expected to be selected as the Democratic nominee at this weekend’s convention, is already being criticized for the "unsatisfying" news conference he held Tuesday in response to the New York Times story. He became the anticipated nominee when longtime incumbent Chris Dodd announced he would not seek reelection.
Republicans hope to pick up a number of Senate seats this November. Democrats are struggling in Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Nevada, Indiana, North Dakota, Illinois, and Colorado.
If the political environment gets a bit worse for the Democrats, Senators in California, Wisconsin, and Washington could be at risk.
The only Republican seat where the GOP candidate is currently trailing is in Ohio. Rob Portman is down by just a single point in that race.
If the political environment improves for Democrats, they could be competitive in Florida, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Missouri and North Carolina.
Rasmussen Reports also has released results for Senate races in Arizona, Alabama, Kansas, Maryland, Oregon, Iowa, Vermont, Idaho and Hawaii.
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