Support for the war in Iraq declines in Texas, poll finds
By Dave Montgomery
Star-Telegram Washington Bureau
Support for the war in Iraq has eroded significantly in President Bush's home state since the conflict started almost a year ago, with nearly 60 percent of Texans registering disapproval with the way things are going, according to a statewide survey released today.
The latest Scripps Howard Texas Poll, conducted for the Star-Telegram and other Texas news organizations, shows that while a majority of Texans still stand behind the president in his overall handling of the war, they are increasingly uncertain about instability in Iraq and the length of the U.S. occupation.
In what analysts called the most striking finding, 58 percent disapproved of the way the war is going for the United States, reflecting apparent concern over continued attacks on U.S. troops and almost daily bombings aimed at derailing attempts to stabilize the country. Thirty-eight percent approved.
While 59 percent of those surveyed believe that Bush was justified in launching the war on March 20, the finding reflects a 13 percent drop over the past nine months. Other survey categories also suggest that support is waning for the president's Iraq policy since the last poll in June.
"What we saw in the poll is declining support for the war in Iraq," said Ty Meighan, director of the Texas Poll. "It's still a high number, but you can see that there is less support for the war. It's very clear that Texans are more concerned about our role in Iraq."
The survey showed growing skepticism over Bush's central justification for launching the war -- ridding Iraq of weapons of mass destruction. In the June survey, 56 percent predicted that the weapons would eventually be found, but only 34 percent made that prediction in the latest poll.
Democrats have assailed the administration for failing to uncover any stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction, using the issue to attack the president's credibility and challenging the rationale for committing troops to combat.
But, at the same time, 60 percent disagreed that Bush deliberately misled the country. Moreover, an identical percentage believe the war was justified even if weapons of mass destruction are never found, and 66 percent said that Iraq, under Saddam Hussein's regime, posed a threat to the United States.
"I would love for them to find the weapons -- so President Bush could thumb his nose at them [Democratic critics]," said Paula Pruitt, a 51-year-old grandmother in Mansfield, who was among the 1,000 Texans polled in the survey, which was conducted Feb. 12-March 3. "But whether they find them or not," she added, the invasion was necessary to "keep a person like Saddam Hussein from killing and torturing people."
Random telephone interviews with others surveyed reflected a diverse range of views, from those who remain solidly behind Bush's war stance to others who now harbor misgivings.
Zaki Ayad, a civil engineer in Arlington, said he supported Bush in the 2000 election but now considers his vote "a mistake."
He accused the president of starting the war "under false pretenses" and said that Secretary of State Colin Powell presented "half-lies" to the United Nations during a prewar speech claiming that Saddam was stockpiling superweapons.
"We brought the country to chaos," he said. "It's like the Old West over there. Everybody with a gun can rule."
Ralph Gipson, a former pastor of the Mount Olive Lutheran Church in Dallas, said that the president was "deceitful" in his justification for the war but warned that it would be a mistake to withdraw U.S. troops before the country is running more smoothly under an Iraqi government.
"If we pull out now," he said, "we're going to leave the country in disarray. Since we have committed ourselves, it's pointless to leave without finishing."
J.D. Pierce, a 65-year-old aerospace engineer in Cleburne, said he believes that Saddam had plans for weapons of mass destruction, even though none have been found. Others expressed similar views, with some speculating that his regime spirited the weapons out of the country before the invasion.
Texans were sharply divided over whether Saddam's capture eased the threat of terrorism against the United States, with 50 percent saying they believe it did, while 46 percent disagreed.
"I think we're safer," said Renee Haapala-Henrie of Aledo, a 36-year-old mother of two teen-agers. "Saddam needed to be taken out. He's not the threat he once was."
National surveys suggest that wavering public support for the war could become a major vulnerability for Bush as he charges into his re-election campaign against Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the presumptive Democratic nominee. Disenchantment over the war was cited as the biggest source of voter anger at Bush in a recent Gallup survey.
Although the former Texas governor is considered unbeatable in his home state, analysts say a noticeable decline in support for the war could prompt Kerry to campaign more aggressively in Texas. Bruce Buchanan, a presidential scholar at the University of Texas, said the Texas Poll's finding that only 38 percent of Texans approve of the way the war is going constitutes a particularly troubling statistic from the Bush perspective.
"The South, including Texas, is sympathetic to the president's role as commander in chief, and that's what makes this number so surprising," Buchanan said.
The survey question also indicated that Texans are sharply polarized along party lines over the war, reflecting a national trend in the 2004 election campaign. Sixty-two percent of Republicans signaled their approval of the way the war is going, compared with only 16 percent among Democrats.
Rep. Kay Granger, a Fort Worth Republican who made a congressional fact-finding trip to Iraq in September, said the war may have been plagued by "poor intelligence" and unforeseen complications. But a majority of Texans, she said, share her view that "we should stay the course."
Granger said she doesn't believe that the war will be a political problem for Bush in his home state. "People have been amazingly supportive," she said.
Nevertheless, the survey reflected what Meighan, the poll director, said is increasing uncertainty over the length of the U.S. occupation, with 19 percent saying they are unable to predict how long troops will remain in Iraq, a 9-point increase from June. Twenty-nine percent predicted that troops will remain in Iraq from two to five years.
Bush won a strong endorsement from Texans for his war on terrorism, with 72 percent saying that the president's policies have addressed security risks that existed before 9-11. But, at the same time, they also registered continued fears over the prospect of another terrorist strike. Three out of four said a terrorist attack on U.S. soil may take place next year, most likely by suicide bombers striking a public place.
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Dave Montgomery, (202) 383-6016 dmontgomery@krwashington.com |
