Can't tell whether this is an outlier or the indication of a trend. But, whatever . . . , it's interesting information.
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Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Palin's Favorability Numbers Eroding
As voters have taken a second look at Sarah Palin in venues like the Charlie Gibson interview and even Tina Fey's SNL sketch, they may not be as enamored of what they're seeing.
The Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos now has Palin's favorability-unfavorability scores at 45-44 -- just a +1. Six days ago, when the poll, launched, she was at a 52-35, a +17.
And I know that some of you don't like or don't trust this poll -- for reasons that I think are a little silly -- but there is a similar decline in her numbers in the Diageo/Hotline poll. Her favorability numbers in yesterday's Hotline poll -- today's isn't out yet -- were a 48-36, or a +12. But a week ago, on September 8, she had been at a 48-24, a +24.
Whether this ultimately has any effect on the Presidential race remains to be seen; Obama's position has improved in the national trackers, but not so much in the state polls. But it seems possible to me that John McCain's recent bounce has had more to do with John McCain -- whose speech at the convention was as underrated as Palin's was overrated -- and less to do with Palin than is generally acknowledged. And if people are voting based on the bottom of the ticket, it seems furthermore that she may yet wind up being a net liability for him.
-- Nate Silver at 9:15 AM
fivethirtyeight.com |
