Good movies:
'Baghdadograd': Saddam prepares for final siege Iraq
plans to withstand coming attack on Iraqi capital for
days, weeks, months
Saddam Hussein is making preparations for a
triple-stage strategic defense of his capital city
inspired by the Soviet defense of Stalingrad in World
War II, reports the latest edition of Joseph Farah's
G2 Bulletin, the new online intelligence newsletter.
Hussein himself has dubbed the defense strategy
"Baghdadograd," and is ordering his military leaders
to watch two Hollywood movies in anticipation of the
attack by Americans – "Enemy at the Gates," the story
of the German siege of Stalingrad, and "Black Hawk
Down," about a one-day guerrilla battle in Mogadishu,
Somalia.
The Iraqi dictator believes that if he can hold on to
the capital and prolong the war, protests by Arab
nations and the worldwide anti-war movement will allow
him to negotiate a ceasefire and remain in power, says
the G2 Bulletin report.
"Hussein, known for his admiration of the former
Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, and for his ongoing
study of the Soviet Union during World War II,
believes he will be able to gain critical time through
a series of planned retreats, yielding a number of
urban centers along Iraq's green belt on the banks of
the Tigris river and its tributaries," says the G2
Bulletin report.
Israeli Chief of Army Intelligence Gen. Amos Gil'ad
said he expects the Iraqis to form five circles around
Baghdad. The two outer circles will be held by the
lower-grade divisions. Inside will be additional
circles of first-grade units, with the Republican
Guard in the center.
As lines are broken, the troops' orders are to retreat
back to the city to join civilian resistance fighters.
In Hussein's grand vision, he sees tens of thousands
of Iraqis, the bulk of his army and many of the 4
million residents of the capital, resisting the
attacking force, while laying death traps for the
invading U.S. and allied forces.
An analysis by the State Department concludes Baghdad,
with its approximately 4 million people, is an almost
independently sustainable entity. One of the
evaluations, dealing with the water situation,
suggests that March, April and May could be
significantly more advantageous for the defenders.
Those are the months when water levels rise, sometimes
dramatically, making the advance of mechanized forces
and armor difficult.
"The Iraqi decision to buy time with the plan to
create a 'Baghdadograd' includes the deliberate
capitulation of many cities and villages, which will
then be turned into centers of chaos," reports G2
Bulletin. "This situation will keep the allies fully
involved, not only in attempts to pacify those
centers, but mainly with the obligation of taking care
of large Arab civilian populations."
Saddam Hussein was quoted by G2 Bulletin sources as
saying, "If we will be as heroic as the Somalis and
the Lebanese (during the siege of Beirut in 1982-83),
we will inflict on the Americans heavy losses."
Some analysts believe if allied forces have to fight
for Baghdad, their losses could reach somewhere
between 10 and 20 percent. In other words, if an
allied force of 50,000 men, out of the total ground
troops numbering 150,000, battle to conquer Baghdad,
they may loose an estimated 5,000 to 10,000 killed and
wounded.
This price would seem "normal" according to the
standards of major campaigns during World War II, but
it is unacceptable to the American people, to the
British and the Australians. |
