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Strategies & Market Trends : Playing the QQQQ with Terry and friends.

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To: sandintoes who wrote (83)5/14/2005 1:33:00 AM
From: Walkingshadow  Read Replies (1) of 4814
 
<<wouldn't everyone be looking for the same conditions for a short? >>

Well... yes. But that is what you want.

This is very much like the buying surge you often see in an uptrending stock that corrects back to support. People just like to buy something that is good when it is relatively cheap.

The same with shorts, except in reverse: people like to short stocks when they are relatively expensive, so that means when they have rallied.

But that's what you want to do: trade with the trend, and the trend is clearly defined by the stock price movement relative to support, resistance, and moving averages. In the case of KKD, the trend is down, so it makes most sense to trade with that trend and short KKD. Likewise, it is risky to short uptrending stocks, and you are much better advised to take long positions in strong market leaders, not short positions.

So, 53% of KKD's float is held short:

finance.yahoo.com

Actually, that is something I do not like to see in a short, because it makes a short squeeze very likely, and that's why KKD periodically rallies rather sharply.

Now, as anticipated, KKD rallied into the declining 50 sma and was once again turned back. That 50 sma has been a very good place to look for a short entry again and again:

stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iLg!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G

... and so it was a good entry again, also because the 50 sma coincided with the upper BB rail.

This is not unusual for stocks in downtrends: they often rally into the same resistance levels again and again and are turned away again and again. So that provides a nice rationale for a trade on the short side, just as you would look to buy a stock long when it successfully tests support, and you would sell it as it rallies.

T
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