1st Off, I agree we are in a Bear Market. My system confirmed the Bear at the close of December. Here is my Bull/Bear Meter. It currently has the SPX Bear in an OS condition.
Here is a chart showing the condition of each time frame 60 min, Daily, Weekly & Monthly. Right now it's indicating the 60 min is in a OB condition. So I would expect a pull back in the short term.
Here is a chart showing the current phase status of each time frame 60 min, Daily, Weekly & Monthly:
All of the above phases have exceeded their projections.
Here is a chart showing the phases that are Extremely Overdue & Overdue:
I'm expecting the W-SC-1 to finally get confirmed at the close on 1/18/2019. It has a projected low at 1893.94, I don't see it getting that low. I believe 2346.58 may very well be it's low, I will explain why later in this report.
I don't see the M-E-1 getting confirmed during the current Monthly P1 (down phase), the SPX Monthly MACD (12,26,9) would have to cross below the zero line for the M-E-1 to get confirmed, I don't see that happening with the future phases that are coming due. The D-1, 60-1 & 60-S-2 will likely get confirmed in the short to mid term.
On the Overdue side. The SPX Monthly was in M-1 territory at the beginning of this month, but the indicators are currently just out of M-1 territory, there is a possibility the M-1 could be confirmed at the end of February. The M-1 has a projected low of 2410.14, so if the M-1 gets confirmed during this current Monthly P1 (down cycle) the projected low range will already be exceeded. The Bear-E-1 & M-SC-1 are not going to get confirmed during this current Monthly/Bear cycle, they will likely end up going onto the Extreme Overdue list.
The D-E-2 probably won't be confirmed during the current Daily P2 up phase, because the Daily MACD (12,26,9) is still well below the zero line and the 60 min is currently in a OB condition. So the D-S-1 or D-1 will likely get confirmed next. Then possibly up in a D-E-2. With the W-S-2 & D-SC-2 coming due this month, the D-E-2 will likely get confirmed before the end of the month, the next Daily P1 (down cycle) will reset the projections for the Daily P2 (up cycle). The current D-1 (extreme overdue) projected low is 2526.03, so if we stay above that range during the next Daily down cycle. The D-E-2 projected high could be around 2633 to 2700. That would confirm the W-S-2 which is due 1/14/19.
The 60-S-1 will likely get confirmed tomorrow (1/10/19).
Now looking at the future phases forecasted:
As you can see above, during the January/February time frame it's down/up/down/up/down/up/down, until April, which is showing a pretty bullish period that could take the SPX up to the 2800 level. By July we could see new all time highs again, matter fact we could see another long Bull Market going into 2022. The BIG BEAR isn't due until 2031.
Bottom line: I doubt we ever see your 1803 projection. If the W-SC-1 gets confirmed 1/18/19, I expect it will be a short one based on the projected future phases, 2346.58 will likely be the W-SC-1 low. Once the W-SC-1 is confirmed that takes care of all the Weekly overdue down phases. So it looks like this short Bear may be coming to an end within the next couple months. Today I added a short position. |
