Thread:
If you haven't found this, there is a whitepaper by George Abe, Palomar Ventures
"Factors Influencing Investment in Residential Broadband Equipment and Services
- a Venture Capital Perspective" that I found more than just interesting: it is
comprehensive. It is the first of a number of white papers at this site from the
Broadband Last-Mile Technology Project of the Computer Science and
Telecommunications Board (CSTB) of the National Academy of Sciences.
www4.nationalacademies.org
(thanks to Stepen Wall for pointing me to the web page).
While I don't agree with everything (his dismissal of ATM, for example, his
analysis of the lack of willingness to pay for broadband, and his view of patents), it
is a very good summary of broadband wireless from a VC perspective, the same
as an investor in most ways, of the current status of the broadband last mile.
I recommend it highly.
Now he briefly brings up a point also made by Jim Kayne on the *NEW* Frank
Coluccio Technology Forum thread about work at home videoconferencing (let me
call it WAHV). I've been looking at multi-media demand, and it seems to me this
has the potential to cause the most disruption in the last mile in a manner, that I, at
least haven't paid enough attention to.
Consider this about WAHV:
1. Just as home PC growth was initially driven by work subsidized PC, modem,
and access, the costs for work at home can be paid for by your company or
business
2. A room in you house used for business is now tax deductible
3. The gas crisis, the cost of renting offices, and the problems of hiring people in
any one location, make is advantageous to have more people work at home more
of the time.
4. Corporations will use VPN in their intranet, and probably for external meetings
as well, and are likely to extent the VPN to the home of important staff
5. Distance learning may mean that we may also want Learn at home
videoconferncing (LAHV).
On snippet form a press release:
"Hezel Associates, an education planning and research firm in Syracuse, N.Y.,
estimated that presently some $6 billion is spent on all forms of teleconferencing:
$1.3 billion in schools for kindergarten through 12th grade classes, $1.6 billions
institutions for higher education, and $3.5 billion in corporations. Hezel mentioned
that in the corporate environment about 65 of the Fortune 500 companies employ
some form of distance training and learning at the present time. Some research
organizations predict that by the year 2006, about 97 percent of the Fortune 1000
companies will adopt data- conferencing solutions and about 90 percent will also
install desktop video conferencing systems."
Look at the following plausible scenario:
1. In a few years all the big / small companies fide it can save a lot on travel by
having video conferencing, particularly in the age of globalization.
2. Work at home means that the enterprise intranet and VPN are extended to your
house
3. You start to attend conferences and meetings more and more by work video
4. With a small investment, paid for by your company, you start to attend
meetings and conferences and seminars and convention from home.
If even 10% of the working people start to work form home, and do one hour
worth of video meetings a day, this could be a big driver for bandwidth, far
exceeding other demand types, even VOIP and VOD.
There are two problems to be solved:
1. videoconferncing is real-time sensitive voice/video
2. most systems are not symmetrical, and the upstream is a lot less than the down
I also note that cable companies are forcing VPN users to pay different rates: for
example, excite@home will detect your upstream demands, and insist you move to
@work.
What will happen to the last mile if this is true? We will need to either reset the
up/down stream balance in DOCSIS cables, bring 10G fiber to the home, use
ADSL, or a combination.
Perhaps this is what will save DSL from cable- they can't deliver broadcast video
very well. Perhaps they can unite with satellite TV for broadcast and provide work
VPNs to the home? Is WAHV the next killer app? If, it should like VPN services
from DSL may be a very good market in 2-5 years.
I note that Westel (WSTL), a DSL provider, is also supporting Video
conferencing. Are there any pure plays in videoconferencing that anyone can
recommend? |
