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Technology Stocks : Creative Labs (CREAF)
CREAF 0.4700.0%Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: RCVJr who wrote (8532)1/20/1998 11:54:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant  Read Replies (1) of 13925
 
RCVJr, Hey guys! Greetings from the Riverside Cafe in Lafayette Louisiana! I pulled out the ol' laptop whilst eating some Red Beans and Rice, and Jambalaya, to check in on the Thread.

Remember- what's more important is not so much the earnings estimates as the stock's reaction thereto. Take a look e.g., at the DD sector- dogbait earnings generally except for maybe Innovex this week. Yet the stocks are moving sideways to up. That suggests to me that the DD stocks have factored in the bad news and are basing here, barring something new and unexpected out of Asia (and what unexpected shock can be left- except maybe that the Premier of the PRC is humping Rin-Tin-Tin???).

I fully expect CREAF to meet earnings expectations shortly- and I fully expect CREAF's management to say business will slow a bit moving forward. But I'm not so sure but that (terrible English!) CREAF is not also in a basing period just like many other DD, equipment companies, and networkers too.

I will not predict the short-term, except that this basing activity in the tech sector will limit the downside to CREAF- we may wander in thwe $16.25-$19.5/share range for a few months. But I'm beginning to feel that we are setting up for a powerful rally in small/mid-cap tech stocks later in 1998.

In fact I'll stick my neck out and say that late in 1998 we may push and even exceed $30/share for CREAF..... No firm data yet to make this assertion- just watching what I perceive to be a lot of basing-type action going on in tech stocks right now and factoring in late year signs of an upturn in Asian economies generally in 1999....

Well guys, here comes the Turtle Soup and Fried Alligator Tail- gotta go!

Sincerely,

Doug F.
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