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Technology Stocks : APSG - Applied Signal
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To: Mark who wrote (854)11/8/1998 9:46:00 AM
From: Ausdauer  Read Replies (1) of 884
 
Mark,

In retrospect your analysis was excellent and one could have profited nicely by following your outline and approach to investing in APSG.

I looked back over the last three quarters and they are notable in that 1997 earnings have already been matched during the first three quarters of 1998 on target to a 33% increase year-over-year. At his rate a PEG ratio of 1 (neutral) would give us an anticipated stock price of $27.50. If earnings finish the year at around $1.20 and we are given a discounted PE ratio of 12 (for reasons that have been mentioned) the stock may trade as low as $14.40. If growth rates can be maintained at 15-20% per annum I think we will be revisiting the $19-20 range in short order. There seems to be a lot of anticipatory buying of this issue as quarterly earnings near.

The bookings seem to materialize as each quarter progresses. It seems unlikely that they will announce each new purchase as it rolls in given the nature of their business and the desire of new customers to remain anonymous. The recent $6.1 million dollar order was a milestone in that the company may be attracting overseas customers. And, as the amount of terrorism and political unrest increases in this crazy world one can be reasonably certain that surveillance efforts will rise accordingly. I hate to use that as logic for investing in APSG, but many others interested in this company probably feel the same way.

Ausdauer
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