Below are the analysts which are Quoted in the article
Rakesh Sood, Hambrecht & Quist
Amar Senan, Volpe, Welty & Co
Eric Buck, Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities
Steven Levy, Oppenheimer & Co
First we start with Rakesh Sood who is with Hambrecht & Quist, his opinion is negitive and based on retail Christmas sales. He refers to USR as a "modem maker" and is using retail sales to support his prediction. We have heard USR say the bigger profits are made from sales of the equipment on the other side of the connection.
Therefore I throw this opinion to the side.
Second we have Amar Senan with Volpe, Welty & Co, his opinion is based on their check of the channel which showed positive, he said "the company
has been cautious when giving indications to analysts". this is true in all USR statements....they are conservative in making statements.
This statement tells me 70-75 cents can be expected.
Number three is Eric Buck from Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities, he says "I have no concerns about revenues, no concerns about operating margins it's just the question of the rollout of the x2."
His only concern is x2 roll out costs, again I see this meaning 70-75 cents.
And last we have Steven Levy from Oppenheimer & Co, he admits to guessing, "Our best guess is that all four of these figures should be OK with little chance for positive surprises,"
Again 70-75 cent.
In conclusion we can be assured all will be O.K.....My guess 76-78 cents, heh heh. Go ahead start shooting I'm in my foxhole.
Scrapps
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CHICAGO, Jan 20 (Reuter) - U.S. Robotics Corp ,
mid-way through a transition to a long-awaited faster modem
technology, may be pressed to meet Wall Street expectations for
its fiscal first quarter earnings, many analysts said.
U.S. Robotics is due to report results after the market
closes on Tuesday. The consensus estimate, according to First
Call, is $0.72 a share, and the range is $0.70 to $0.75.
"I think revenues are likely to be shy of expectations, and
it's possible that if you work through the model the bottom
line will also be shy," said Rakesh Sood, an analyst for
Hambrecht & Quist.
"We would expect them to be shy by a couple of pennies," he
said.
Sood said that surveys of the modem maker's retail channels
show sales in the last few weeks of December, a key period for
retailers, were soft.
"They were okay but not spectacular," Sood said, adding
that to make the numbers, strong sales were needed during that
key holiday sales period.
"I think it would be a stretch for the company to make the
bottom line," Sood said.
Amar Senan, an analyst with Volpe, Welty & Co, said the
channel checks he has seen were solid. But he added the company
has been cautious when giving indications to analysts.
"They've always said this is going to be a close quarter
because of the transition, but the channel checks we've done
have been positive," Senan said.
U.S. Robotics is expected to begin shipping its new desktop
modems in late January, and system hubs are due in February.
The technology is called x2 because the 56-kilobit-per-second
download speed is nearly twice as fast as today's typical 28.8
kilobit per second modems.
Eric Buck, an analyst with Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette
Securities, said he will look for costs related to organizing
and advertising the launch the x2. Buck said he pegged earnings
at $0.75 a share and revenues at $662.4 million.
U.S. Robotics, for example, has already run prime-time
television spots, and the first of the new modems are not
expected to ship until late this month.
"I think that's the high end of what they can do," Buck
said of his earnings estimate. "I have no concerns about
revenues, no concerns about operating margins -- it's just the
question of the rollout of the x2."
Steven Levy, an analyst for Oppenheimer & Co, said
revenues, earnings per share, inventory in the channel and
accounts receivables are key numbers this quarter. He also
noted that the company's EPS will indicate just how much U.S.
Robotics is spending on rolling out the new products.
"Our best guess is that all four of these figures should be
OK with little chance for positive surprises," Levy said in a
recent research report. "We also believe that if U.S. Robotics
reports an in-line quarter the company's stock should react
positively because expectations are so pessimistic."
And even if the company falls short for the first quarter,
analysts said once the x2 rollout is solidly underway, the
outlook for U.S. Robotics is strong.
"It looks like it is possible for the overall year to make
up for it (potentially weak first quarter) or at least come
close," Hambrecht & Quist's Sood said. |
