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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: GST who wrote (85821)	9/2/2007 1:56:35 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (2) of 110194

'I think he overestimates our ability to ride the global wave -- I suppose it is more accurate to say that some Americans will love it and make a fortune and some will learn to live like strawberry pickers. But neither of these guys is calling for deflation -- on the contrary, both are looking forward to inflation picking up despite a slowing economy.' Here is something to ponder. We had commercial RE prices nationwide drop 60%+, residential home prices crash 30%+ in our largest cities in our largest states of CA, NY and TX,Japan's economy crash into depression and our entire banking industry insolvent all during the dark days of FIRREA and the RTC yet no deflation in this country from 1990-95.. Someone explain why this time is so different and we will experience our deflation? Short of the Citigroups and Bank Americas and JP Morgan Chases of the world all going under it ain't happening.. mortgagenewsdaily.com Sorry but J6P up to his eyeballs in debt and leveraged speculators getting wiped out won't cut it as major factors<g> It was real bad as I was actually someone who lived it in my profession day in and day out as compared to the new age economists of today..Glad Mish won't be here to 'liven' the discussion as he knows it all. Maybe I need to reread Ravi Batra's "Surviving the Depression of 1990' book for about the sixth time to finally get it. He is good at predicting coming crashes (but tons of people expected the tech and housing crashes in recent times too)but very bad at the aftermath once the dust settles leaving you much further behind on the back end of another cycle if you took the advice and became eternal doom and gloom with cash is king as a long term mantra.. en.wikipedia.org

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