IRAQ: Running Out of Blood Money
Strategy Page
March 15, 2005
The Iraqi army and police have a casualty rate over four times that of coalition forces. Amazingly, this has not had any apparent effect on recruiting. While most recruits persist because they need a job, for an increasing number, it's all about revenge. Most soldiers are married men who live at home. When police and soldiers are killed, their neighbors in uniform feel an obligation to get revenge. In Sunni Arab areas, the police often know who is doing the killing. If not the individuals, than the family or clan.
That's why the terrorists try to haul their dead away. But enough enemy dead and wounded are found, plus captives from raids, to know which families are hostile. The Iraqi police know how to play the family angle, which to Western eyes is bizarre. For example, if it is clear that the family is behind the attackers, then arresting the head of the family (usually an extended family, often with several dozen members) often gets the attention, and often the surrender, of the terrorists.
While many Iraqis know a lot of family details, U.S. forces have had to apply their computers and software (genealogy and police stuff, especially) to figure out who is who. This was how Saddam was captured over a year ago, and how an increasing number of terrorist leaders are being tracked down and captured. In the past week, former Saddam bodyguard Marwan Taher Abdul Rashid and his cousin, Abdullah Maher Abdul Rashid (also the brother-in-law of Saddam's son, Qusai), were captured because a family tree was illuminated and shaken. Many members of the extended Saddam clan have been found involved in funding and leading the attacks on the government and coalition troops. Money has been used as a weapon, and the Baath Party/pro-Saddam groups spend over $100,000 for each coalition soldier they kill.
Thus the policy against paying ransoms. It's literally blood money. This is especially true because indications are that the terrorists are running into cash flow problems. As the tide turns, many of the terrorist paymasters are shifting their spending to themselves and their families. With war crimes trials now under way, and more Iraqi police out there knocking on doors, paying for dead cops and American soldiers is becoming a dangerous proposition. Too dangerous for a man of means.
PEACEKEEPING: French Operate Quietly in Lebanon
March 15, 2005: France is again indulging in some stealthy peacekeeping. For the last three weeks, the French command ship Var has been sitting off Lebanon, coordinating plans for the evacuation of French citizens from Lebanon. This would involve moving some 20,000 people out of the country, by sea, air and land. This would require two or three battalions of elite troops (marines, paratroopers and commandoes), and some of these may already be in the area. Some French troops are already ashore and establishing "liaison" relationships with Lebanese civil and military organizations.
While the French are seen as pro-Christian by the Moslem factions in Lebanon, the French are also respected as a foreign country that respects Lebanese interests. This means that France could play a role in preventing another Lebanese civil war, especially one that involved the issue of Syrian troops, and influence, in the country. But most importantly, the French are doing all of this very quietly, so as not to enrage any of the already irritated factions in the area.
ARMORED WARFARE: JCM Killed by Friendly Fire
March 15, 2005: The U.S. Army is canceling its JCM (Joint Common Missile) program, meant to develop a replacement for the Hellfire anti-tank missile. The 108 pound Hellfire , used by helicopters and UAVs, has been in service since 1985, and some 76,000 have been built. The JCM was becoming too expensive, and many officers believed that the existing Hellfire II and heavier (670 pound) Maverick and SDB (250 pound Small Diameter smart Bomb) cover all the missions the services need to handle. The demise of the JCM also spotlights the importance of the guidance systems for missiles, and the ease with which missiles can be upgraded with more effective electronics.
The basic design of these older missiles is not likely to change any time soon, and any of the main components (structure, rocket motor, controls, warhead, guidance system) can be upgraded. While the idea of having a common air-to-surface anti-tank missile for all the services was attractive, it simply didn’t add up in the end. The navy and air force fighters can use a larger missile, and the Hellfire has gotten a new lease on life via use on small UAVs. JCM, while nice in theory, didn’t pan out in practice.
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