Power Consumption and DSL Market Valuation]
Steve, the following are the specs of the Amati home page (tonight). The current set of specs say the power is 12 watts. It is my understanding that for deployment power must be at or below 2 watts to make it economically feasible due to the power requirements of between 600-1000 units at a CO. (please feel free to debate this with me).
Power consumption 12 W per line (when transmitting at 20 dBm)
I am long Amati and have held on through more than one of these trips on the roller coaster. I think that we have gone through the hype, and gee whiz this is a neat new technology phase and now all of the DSL players are being judged on how quickly they will be able to bring product to market. Also, I think we may all be over estimating the market size by at least 10 years. My feeling is that for the better part of 97 we will hear lots more trials, and some very limited deployments, 98 may have deployment < 3 million units. I don't think that this technology will be really main stream until at least 2001 (5 years before most of us here on SI will have a DSL modem).... Remember, the online community still represents less than 20% of the folks in the US who are fortunate enough to even have computers.
Lets say that there are 230 million folks in the US, 40 % of those folks have access to a computer, and of that
40 percent, 20 percent are online users that yields (230,000,000 * .40) * .20 = 18,000,00 online users this year.
Now if we assume that the number of users grows at the rate of 30 percent per year (year over year) and that
the number of DSL users grows .05 in 97, 10 percent in 98,99 and 2000, then 20 percent in 2001 and 2002 we
get the following.
Year 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002
mill Online 24 31 40 53 68 89
%DSL Users 5 10 10 20 20 20
Total Users 100k 3.1mi 4.mil 5.25m 13.6m 17.76m
Billions
Gross Rev DSL 0.05 0.62 0.80 1.05 2.7 3.55
Retail price $500.00 $200.00 $200.00 $200.00 $200.00 $200.00
Net Profit $10 $124 $161 $210 $546.5 $710
So according to my guess, the DSL revenues (assuming net 20% profits) in 97 may approach 10 million and then 710 million by the year 2002. These numbers assume a retail price for DSL modem of $500.00 in 1997 and then a retail price of $200.00 each year after. These numbers also assume that the manufacture realizes a 20 % profit margin on every sale.
What do you think? |
