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Biotech / Medical : Paracelsian Inc (PRLN)
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To: richard davis who wrote (859)11/12/1996 8:07:00 PM
From: John H. Farro   of 4342
 
Hi Richard, I don't see why they would use the AndroCar results as a diversion from their AndroVir study. If they have no reason to believe that AndroVir will work, they should come right out and say it. It would be lunacy to spend the money to market a product that you know will fail. I would feel much better if they had made an announcement by now about the AndroVir study. They have never been hesitant to broadcast good news in the past. If there was good news I would think they would have told us by now. On the other hand, if the news was bad I don't think they would announce they intended to market it in March. I'm just guessing they are holding the news so they can say something at the conference that no one has heard before.

Much as I am dying to know more about their marketing plans, it might be a good idea for them not to give out details of their plan in advance for the following reasons:

1) Suppose they announce ambitious plans of a wide release by a certain target date. If something unexpected comes up which delays those plans or requires them to make a limited distribution, then they will lose credibility. They already lost some credibility by announcing an expanded compassionate use study and only expanded it to about 70 patients instead of 300. I doubt they want to make the same mistake again.

2) They might want to wait until they are closer to the release date so they don't tip off potential competitors to their plans.

3) They might not want widespread publicity just yet for fear that they might attract the attention of a big pharmaceutical company that would want to take them over.

4) They might not want to attract the attention of AIDS activists who might hold rallies in front of their headquarters demanding that they accelerate their marketing schedule. They are a small operation and they don't need the distraction of impatient protestors. If the protestors did pressure them to accelerate their schedule, they might run into the same problem that Merck did and find themselves unable to stock the store shelves because they are running out of AndroVir.

5) They are more likely to get big headlines if they wait to announce their plans until just before AndroVir hits the market. If they announce it now, then they might get a 2-paragraph article buried on page 40 of the paper. When March comes along the papers might say "That's old news" and print another 2-paragraph article on page 40. If they wait until late February then the papers are more likely to treat it as major news.

I am dying to know their plans, but I am assuming they are not releasing more information for solid business reasons. I am reminded of the old hit from the 1960's "Turn Turn Turn" by the Byrds (who took some of the lyrics from the Bible.) "To everything there is a time and a season..." This is the time for waiting.

Robin
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