Ken, I can see your point now. But I don't agree with your assessments. Your first: "...BUT, much of the volume is in these low to mid range PCs (below $1700). There is still volume above the $2000 price point, but it drops off VERY rapidly". As I mentioned in an earlier post, I use a Mac, so naturally I've watched that market. Apple, as everyone knows, really got creamed this year. It all started last year about this time when the new Macs that arrived in great quantity in the stores were the cheap 68040 machines. The more expensive PowerPCs were stocked at lower quantities as Apple naturally didn't expect those sales to be as high. Wrong! The cheap ones sat and the $3,500 and up machines flat disappeared as every one was sold. If Apple had stocked the other way around, they'd be at 20% market share by now. As it happened, they lost $1B in sales!
You are right that there is that large group of $1,700 and under customers out there. Those people are almost exclusively first time computer buyers. And you're right that they don't know what a Zip or Jaz is. I might even agree they wouldn't be likely to buy a Zip since they certainly haven't yet experienced a hopelessly overloaded hard disk. Once they get in the swing of pouring money into games (their most likely first purchases) and then real software, they will become more and more savvy and start to feel the pinch. They'll buy Zip about 6 months after their original first computer purchase.
Second time buyers are more astute about computers. They won't be afraid of their second purchase and will know how quick hard disks can be filled. This group of people, which I contend outnumbers the newbies each year, are going to sink $3,000 to $3,500 in their next machine. Maybe not in one fell swoop - but they will spend that amount within 6 months of that second purchase. These people will appreciate the inclusion of Zips and Jaz in their new computer.
High end business? I don't know yet. We use a network at our company to distribute software - but we don't use it for archiving. I have two Zips, one at work and one at home. I keep all my data on Zip disks. I've had problems with my work machine and have lost the entire contents of the hard disk twice. I lost not one byte of my work data. As much of my work is graphical in nature - 3D modeling, vector and bitmapped graphics, and presentation materials - I have very few files under 2 MBytes in size. The 3.5" floppy has been useless to me this past year.
jlh |
