While I admire the way you lay it all on the line with statements like this, time is only authoritative source for such suppositions.
I call them as I see them. And if I don't see clearly ahead, I shut up. (Thus my switch to neutral on Apple).
I believe we will see many more first-time computer buyers going Mac over the next year.
Mark, get yourself into the shoes of a new buyer. It does not matter whether you or I would buy a new Mac, but its Joe Q. Average out there we should think about. I see three types of new buyers: (1) home computers, (2) small business, (3) large enterprises upgrading their systems.
1) I cannot see why Joe would buy a Mac for home, in the face of the massive marketing campaign from Intel, Microsoft, Dell and Compaq.
You could get Joe's attention with extremely cheap computers. So cheap in fact that we would be talking about NCs.
2) Small businesses. Forget it. They'd go for the security provided by the mediocre Wintel platform (hey! same reason people eat at McDonalds)
3) A large business is not about to replace their desktops with Macs. Large corporations are upgrading midsize departmental UNIX servers to NTs, If Rhapsody appears within the next three months or so, that would provide an alternative. Servers are high end computers.
But, again, time will tell; I can wait. |
