Thanks, Jay, good insight from Stratfor as usual. The
ramifications of the Saudi monarchy's collapse, when it occurs, are much greater for U.S. residents than those on your rock or in your region. I posted to you months ago that the U.S. surely won't attack Iran. I still think that is an accurate assessment, as a risk/reward calculation.
I think our gov't will see Saudi Arabia very differently for 2 reasons: oil and Wahhabi-inspired terrorism, backed by money from that oil. If the current U.S.-friendly regime is embattled after the king's death and seems likely to lose power to those hostile to the U.S., I wouldn't put it past the U.S. gov't to answer a "call for help" from the remnants of the Saudi regime--maybe even generate the call.
So when I hear that Stratfor's sources refrained from making predictions regarding which group might step into the upcoming void, I wonder if they're only focusing upon indiginous groups. One or two more major terrorist attacks against the U.S., traceable to Saudi citizens and/or money, coupled with imminent or actual regime change in Saudi to overt Al Qaeda sympathizers, and I'm concerned that the Arabs complaining of US imperialism will have much more to talk about than they now imagine.
That situation, very much a possibility, will be disastrous for everyone. It will even harm the interests of the Islamists who think that jihad against the West is a good idea. While the U.S. is going to take a dive owing to our penchant for living off others' credit, that doesn't mean the Saudi enablers of those who murder civilians will continue to get a free pass, or that their landmarks will forever enjoy an immunity that U.S. landmarks clearly lack.
Saudi Arabia, it must be noted, houses the two holiest sites for the world's 1.3 billion Muslims and is the headquarters for Wahhabism, one of the strictest interpretations of Islam.
At some point the illusion that the U.S. can be at peace with Muslims while supporting current Israeli policy (and maybe Israel itself) is going to be shattered, officially as well as privately, and all heck will break loose, economically and militarily. At that point the jihad messengers may have the holy war they want, but I doubt the result will please them. More terror attacks, in particular, are going to loosen the very U.S. inhibitions that Islamic holy warriors now count upon.
A retreat, Tobago or otherwise, is sounding better each day. |
