Date: Wed Feb 25 2004 10:34
trotsky (silverrain, 9:05) ID#377387:
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well, that's something i've noticed as well - there's a broad bearish consensus , especially w.r.t. the short to medium term, both in anecdotal terms and measurable sentiment indicators. the Hulbert gold timers were actually net short recently, there are still more puts than calls out in the XAU, gold sector short positions remain very high ( albeit below their ATH ) and even the bulls sound astonishingly bearish almost to a man ( e.g. Maund, Ackerman, Paha, and a few others ) .
to some extent we have the 'self-fulfilling prophecy' effect at work, as the followers of these advisors either have been selling or aren't buying. otoh, gold oscillating in the 390-410 range is no big deal imo, in fact it's probably healthy. btw., the early '79 triangle in gold around the very same level looked almost exactly similar - and must have tried people's patience quite a bit. when the triangle was finished it went up 200 bucks in 20 trading days. i'm not saying the same thing's going to happen here, just noting that it has happened once, and is thus not impossible. |
