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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: excardog who wrote (86508)2/7/2001 7:20:27 AM
From: Second_Titan  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
You may recall that I questioned several times who would be buying gas in April at >$5-6 for storage until next Winter. As a result of the mild weather and the elasticity of the demand seems prices have fallen a month earlier now that the nadir in the storage depletion curve is easier to quantify.

Production is not improving near expectations after many months of heavy drilling and there is allot of pent up demand. We may be surprised that the lower prices cause a rather disturbing fill season this 2nd qtr. A hot dry summer with a new gas turbine being commissioned daily may provide strong demand this summer.

I continue to vacillate which is the best way to play energy stocks on the ST, Int, and LT. But at this point in the cycle I will not hesitate to take some profits around OSX 140.

For me short term could be 1-8 weeks, Int 8 -52 weeks, and long term 52+.

I took allot of chances with a large % of my portfolio in CRK from ~6 and will likely not expose myself that much to a small cap again. But I own small positions in several small caps now to avoid risk of bad news, but enough to catch some benefit of individual improving performance and the combined E&P's if we get a good move in the group.

I believe most of these energy stocks must be traded to make a decent return, but the period of holding is another question. I for one have been very loaded in drillers / service waiting for this move, had I been trying to time this move with a large part of my portfolio I could be waiting on the sidelines for another entry point.

I suspect the patch maybe influenced by NG supply/demand but oil is the prime mover. I go with the $30 WTi average projection for 2001.
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