Bob, I'd like to see that spreadsheet if you don't mind sending it.
I did some checking on units shipped this year and found that they shipped 84 in Q1, 117 in Q2 and 126 in Q3 for a total so far in 97 of 327. If you figure they'll ship somewhere around 135 in Q4, that would give them 462 for FY97. A 40% growth rate for FY98 would put the number of units at about 645 which would be inline with their estimates of 40% growth and close to a 90% market share of the 700 unit demand for 98.
I also extended some EPS estimates out through 1998 by quarter and came up with the following:
Revenue ( Assumes 10% Q3 to Q4 97 Growth and 6% sequential growth per quater after that)
1996 1997 1998
Q1 $7,160 $36,971 $67,008 est
Q2 $12,022 $50,132 $71,028 est
Q3 $18,246 $57,468 $75,290 est
Q4 $28,390 $63,215 est $79,807 est
Totals $65,818 $207,786 est $293,133 est
41.1% growth
Earnings (Assumes 12.3% Net income/Gross Income for Q4 97 through Q4 98. 12.3% was their actual net to gross number for Q3 which is when they started using the higher tax rate)
1996 1997 1998
Q1 ($260) $4,408 $8,242 est
Q2 $1,217 $7,430 $8,736 est
Q3 $2,006 $7,047 $9,261 est
Q4 $3,556 $7,752 est $9,816 est
Totals $6,519 $26,637 $36,055
EPS (Based on earnings estimates / 30,500,000 shares)
1996 1997 1998
Q1 ($0.01) $0.14 $0.27 est
Q2 $0.04 $0.24 $0.29 est
Q3 $0.07 $0.23 $0.30 est
Q4 $0.12 $0.25 est $0.32 est
$0.21 $0.87 est $1.18 est
35.6% growth
I think these numbers are inline with their growth projections. The EPS estimates are somewhat conservative because they say their margins should be improving thoughout 1998 from their current levels. |
