no way Tex, market ran into kilo of cocaine five weeks ago
and just ran out
it is not running on the coke supply any longer
but rather on tars inside the freebase pipes
back in my old hawaiian kona pot days, we would resort to about 3 days of smoking the pipe, after depleting supplies
at times we would scrape out tars with a paper clip
hardened tars were stronger than hashish
this market is running on fumes, on pipe tars
they have run out
and this fact will be very apparent after the elections on Tuesday, and after the FOMC meeting the following day, when our own Hairless Sir Alan GreenScrotum will declare the recovery on course and NOT CUT RATES
neither the dollar nor the stock market will like that decision
but this time, they will not agree with his shallow and empty assessment of the economy
THEY KNOW BETTER
and after a few more weeks, the bond market will bounce around with rates retesting the 3.5% to 3.6% area
but a foreigner risk premium must be maintained, and that level might be the lows for rates
if not, then only a mite lower will be the lows
foreigners hold 45% of TBonds, and must be offered premiums
the bond yields will bottom out, then the paper game is over
some pathetic attempts will occur to recycle back into stocks
but it will fail
after bonds and stocks both look like profitless wastelands,
TIME FOR GOLD TO TAKE CENTER STAGE
MY GUESS: AROUND FEB-APRIL 2003
I have said all spring and summer long, GreenScheiss is trapped and powerless
he cannot cut rates, or else risk a dollar decline
but with current rates OR EVEN lower rates, the economy slips further
which will hurt the dollar anyway
the conclusion is that cutting rates hastens the dollar decline
he must continue with his deceptions on the economy revival
if he cuts interest rates, it will occur during a panic
if he cuts before the panic, we will see utter pandemonium panic later
the Federal Reserve is being relied upon by masses far more than can be justified by its actual power
in my view the Fed is totally impotent now
and besides, with debt now at 90% of our asset base...
what is left to borrow against?
who is left to borrow?
who is willing to lend? (except for cars, homes)
this economy is slowing morphing into payless commerce
buy now, pay nothing, accept delivery with no payments until later
no interest either
in some cases, you can rent with no cost
we are slowing seeing the entire floor disintegrate
we may soon see editorial opinions that this is a sign of an advanced economy with highspeed finance
dont believe it, rather it is a desperate economy that is completely unwilling to shed the 5% of the workforce that I expect from here
that is right: 10% unemployment, just like Germany !!!
soon it will be clear that large tracts of the economy will be assumed by the federal govt, as the United States suffers a transition into a socialist state, with state-owned utilities, state-owned car mfrs, and state-owned housing
it will be a sad transition, but that is precisely where we head
100% short is a perfect place to be
esp since all charts show us impossibly stuck below resistance
with enough knocks on the pipes without response, a young man gives us on getting his tubes drained on the given night
he checks out and falls asleep
/ jim |
