Bobcor, we need one more quarter of data......
The cycle dome is just peaking. Still in the deflation camp, not at all on board with this 70s inflation run, chasing it here makes no sense.
It is too early to make a call. I would keep that short hedge on however. At least a portion of assets.
And as long as oil holds up, one must be in energy in some way. For now the MLPs are not so bad due to dividend payout.
Currency - does not hurt to have exposure here as well, I have some problems with the YEN due to their debt to GDP situation. Prefer Swiss or even Euro.
Not an easy bet in here, I feel let the cash take a small hit and give it a bit of time. However it should not be all of your holdings, it must be hedged to a percentage via the above near term.
Read my other posts from today, great article on what this is really all about.
And if I am right, gold will not be as safe as many assume. Also the markets are in big, big trouble - there is room for one more high yet, that is doable.
Patience and no rush is the better bet near term. I see so many chasing the next hot thing, that never works. You get one right and burned on the next.
Great post, most everyone I feel is thinking like you, it is hard to make sense of all this. In the 70s we did not have the debt or derivative nor the hedge funds, it is so different this time around. We had only just come off the gold standard. Tricky is the word.
The FED is not just scared about deflation, it is so much deeper than that this time!
West |
