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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: Jason Cogan who wrote (8683)3/9/1998 12:57:00 AM
From: Investor-ex!   of 13594
 
J.C.,

In the short term, the market focuses on subscriber growth. Until that number cracks, I do not believe AOL will drop substantially. Since this number is unaudited, what will cause it to crack?

Well, at the very least, we can divide the quarter's declared access fee revenues by roughly $20 (soon to be $22) and if the number that comes up does not approximately equal their declared membership numbers within ~10% (to account for full-year prepayments and clients on the hourly pay-as-you-go rate), I would say they're lying and that membership growth has, in fact, stalled.

Of course, this would involve pulling out a calculator, looking up and typing in the numbers, and actually thinking about the results for five minutes. Not likely, these days... :o)
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