Most of us are ONLY referring to capitulation in intermediate terms, that is a given. That we can NOT keep repeating.
Many of us to do NOT expect a final bottom until AT LEAST next spring.
I and Jeff believe we are in retrace of 1929, and for various reasons we have calculated this to complete itself Betweem 4/2003 and 7/2003. That is to say, by next year sometime the market will be substantially lower than now on all indexes.This scenario is worse than Zeev's scenerio and is kicked about on the P&S thread.
Copy and store this, so you can have this available for NEXT year to wave in my face and say i was "wrong" if i prove wrong. But that is my conviction.Period.
A lot of RESEARCH and MUCH reading goes into this.*
But is NOT my job to write a BOOK on SI.
That is my position, it is a firm position, i will either be right or wrong come sometime next year.
My position is that simple.
I am in no mood to ever discuss why anymore, as i have written plenty.
I have a 2nd scenario that is far worse than my first scenario but that is in the high speculative area as of now and is not worth discussing for at least a year. Max
* those read and considered in part be Sir John Templeton, Joseph Stiglitz, Dr. Marc Faber, Robert Shiller, Warren Buffet(his historical studies and his future views)
Lord Maynard Keynes , Edward Chancellor and so on and so on etcetera etcetera. P.S. Lord Keynes would be shocked at the amount manipulation that now goes , imo, and he would also be quite alarmed that world has become Stock Market dependent rather hard economic fundamentals.
In 1929 90% of the market came from only 10% of the population, this has changed to the extreme, the stock market was never intended to be a foundation stone of society's well being. Since 1987 we have made the stock market central to world's well being, that is, nor ever was a good idea. |
