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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: bart13 who wrote (86992)9/28/2007 12:28:16 PM
From: benwood   of 110194
 
If 72 months is cherry picking, what is 18 months? The fact that it is the last 18-month window is irrelevant, statistically speaking, but *less* cherry picking (in general) than finding the optimal 18-month window that proves your point.

Looking at the past 18-month window *might* be more relevant to your own evaluation of a fund, however, simply because it's more recent. That's a different argument altogether (e.g. management change, or change in direction, missed opportunity). And it therefore can be a greater reflection of what to expect going forward.

Or, as we all know from, say, the tech heavy mutual funds late '99, *not* relevant in what to expect in going forward.
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