We are not running the type of media war against them we need to if we want to overthrow them.
I don’t think a media war is going to overthrow the mullahs. The Iranian opposition has consistently disappointed their American supporters, and has been extremely acquiescent since the Iraq invasion, which very predictably strengthened the domestic position of the clerico-fascists. I’m sure there are any number of Iranian exiles who are very willing to tell prominent Americans that if they only had a few tens of millions of dollars to play with, they could bring down the Iranian regime. I get the impression that a number of them have been talking to Michael Ledeen. I see no particular evidence that they can deliver what they promise, or that they intend to.
When they get the bomb, they could become very aggressive with their neighbors with little fear of retaliation. It would cause SA and Jordan to get the bomb also. If Iran moved to take the Saudi oilfields, just across the gulf from them, and Shiite territory, what would we do?
I agree, absolutely. An Iranian bomb is big trouble. I’m just not sure what we can do about it. Invasion isn’t an option. At some point we will probably have to resort to air strikes, but they are well aware of that option and will have taken steps to counteract it. It will be difficult to assess success or failure, and if civilian casualties are high – or are made to appear high – the backlash could be considerable. A lot of the people here, especially those in the chest-thumping gasbag mode, make a show of not caring about the opinion backlash in the Muslim world, but those of us who deal with reality don’t have that luxury. Several of our most critical allies in the WOT are highly unstable unelected governments presiding over restive populations where Islamists have considerable influence. It has become more and more difficult for these governments, particularly those of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, to straddle the line between their commitments to the US and their agitated populations. These are very shitty governments, but if either were to fall to an Islamist insurrection, our current problems would be multiplied by several orders of magnitude.
The bomb is not a problem in core states. It is in these gap ones.
The core/gap distinction is a useful theoretical guide, but far too simplistic for useful application. Is Russia core or gap? Would you consider their nuclear arsenal a problem? I sure as hell would. |
