Well said, Addi. However, I think lately Ascend has issued at least a couple warnings about slowing sales, etc., so some adjustment in the P/E was necessary.
Another way of describing your points 2, 3, and 4:
I think one reason why fear comes quickly to investors at the first hint of danger is this: Unless one is inside the company and has accurate info, it is really difficult to know what is really going on. Investors are left with anecdotal clues such as talking with the company's customers, independant market research reports, hands-on use of the company's products. Very infrequently a company will issue a statement in regards to how things are going. Then there are the quarterly financial reports. Many believe that the market as a whole absorbs, sifts, and interprets all the available clues, and the stock moves in the appropriate direction. Sometimes after a particularly revealing earnings report or company statement, this seems to be true. Other times it is revealed that the market hadn't a clue as to what was really going on.
On that note, I just heard on the radio that "..some believe that many of S. Korea's merchant banks are on the brink of insolvency. But the IMF is prepared to put together an aid package, similar to what it put together for Thailand"
Inside the mind of a fund manager
What am I to believe? How do I know what's happening in S. Korean banks? How will this affect 3Com, if S. Korea goes into economic recession, if they do? If I don't figure this out quick, someone else might decide it's going to hurt 3Com's sales and earnings for awhile, and sell big blocks of stock, driving the price down. I'm fearful. Maybe I should just sell the fund's 3Com stock until the outcome is clear. Then even if it does fall further, I can buy it back cheaper.
Now imagine hundreds of fund managers.
In this environment., I agree with your last two paragraphs in regards to what the individual investor can do to make money.
DK |
