SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 312.76+1.1%Dec 8 4:00 PM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Sun Tzu who wrote (88681)7/19/2022 12:59:38 PM
From: Return to Sender3 Recommendations

Recommended By
kckip
Sr K
Sun Tzu

   of 95536
 

Use Your Firefox Browser for this to see my Short Term to Intermediate Indicators including the VIX. It's best to be cover shorts and enter long positions on cross overs of green lines. Best to go short on cross overs of the red lines and or exit long positions.

The first set of charts for market timing the SMH are based on using the NASDAQ New Highs and similar indexes are shown here. To go long: First wait for the NASDAQ New Highs to set a new low and reverse itself from an approach of the lower Bollinger Band. To go short: Wait for the NASDAQ new highs and other similar new high indices to set a new high print at, near, or above the upper Bollinger Band. I am also now using the NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator (Ratio Adjusted) $NAMO) to confirm the above - Overbought above 25 - Oversold below -25. These charts do not fully update until after market close.

















Short Term Indicators vs. the SMH; any index can be used - The first set of short term indicators I use are based on the put to call ratio. To go long it is best to wait for the put to call ratio to close over 1.0. On the chart below the put to call ratio now updates intraday but it is not always accurate! Intraday reading of the put to call ratio can be found here updated every half hour after the open:

cboe.com

The more days in a row the put to call ratio prints over 1.0 this the more likely the bottom will be a strong one. The link above shows intraday readings of the P/C ratio.

Also closes on the put to call ratio below 0.50 and sometimes a bit above are indicative of a short term top. Watch the simple moving averages as well because periods of too much buying of puts or calls will almost certainly bring about market bottoms and tops respectively. On the CPC/VIX ratio; this is largely a longer term indicator where investors are likely to make more money on the long side once the short-term 21 day sma has crossed above the 200 day sma. The reverse is true as well. An investor will likely make more money on the short side when the 21 day sma crosses below the 200 day sma:







Next I use the VIX, VXO and VXN (Fear Indices) because they can help to refine decision making on tops and bottoms upon reverses from upper or lower Bollinger Bands especially when the index stretches more than 10% above or below its 10 day simple moving average. When a volatility index stretches more than 10% above or below its 10 day sma it will generally reverse direction as will the market in general in the opposite direction.





Also TRIN and TRINQ readings on the 5 and 10 day simple moving averages over 1.5 are bullish while readings below 0.85 are bearish. These readings don't happen often especially with the 10 day sma. They are also early indicators so the market can continue higher or lower for a while but they are reliable for indicating market turns that are about to take place.





These charts simply forewarn of potential trend changes:




























Ever heard of the Hindenburg Omen? The conditions necessary to give a warning are not met all that often but they can be seen on the chart below. If you want to know what a Hindenburg Omen is then click on the link above it first for an explanation:

en.wikipedia.org



The next two charts will not update until a couple hours after the market closes. They show that the market is anything but healthy (Jan 12, 2015) as we are setting an almost equally high number of 52 week lows as 52 week highs while we are very close to new all time highs.

The raw data comes from the WSJ site here:

markets.wsj.com



Small caps lead in a healthy market advance. So looking at what the IWM is doing would be a good idea. Unfortunately I have not got the time to show it now.

Consumer staple stocks are often bought by investors when perceived risk in the market grows. This happens at the end of bull runs in the market:



Investors also buy more Utility stocks when they are chasing yield versus appreciation in the stock market because they think the stock market may not trade much higher in the future:



Healthcare is also seen as a safer investment in the market in uncertain times but I hope everyone will keep in mind that in a bear market every sector usually sells off:



RtS

Report TOU Violation
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News