Paul:
The difference between GSTRF and Iridium, the most recent flop in
satellite communications can be described in four letters: CDMA.
Sorry, but I* did not flop because of TDMA, but because it was too expensive. Even if I* had used CDMA, it would still have flopped. Yes, they had well-advertised problems with getting the call through, and yes, they could have done better with CDMA, but that is not the reason it flopped. I was estimating $8 a minute to break even, and I still claim this is close to the real number.
Globalstar will use it as the medium of transmission, instead of
the TDMA technology used by Iridium. GSTRF will be able to
transmit not just crystal clear quality voice calls, but data,
messaging, paging, and GPS services.
So will cellular CDMA, with a cheaper terrestrial system.
Isn't this thing doomed to fail like the rest of them?
Emphatically, the answer is no. GSTRF is based on CDMA
technology, which is far superior and thus the new standard for
wireless transmission, outstripping the growth rate of GSM and
TDMA combined.
Again, I am not arguing the technology, but the economy. Why should a subscriber use GSTRF (or Orbcomm for that matter) if they can get cheaper equivalent service with land-based cellular. Other than those in truly remote areas, such as ships, etc.
Other systems can not as reliably transport data
the way CDMA can. As for fundamentals, GSTRF costs only half as
much to build as IRID and is profitable with only 400K users.
I don't know where the 400k users came from, but to me half the cost of I* equates to around $4 per minute to break even.
As for fundamentals, GSTRF costs only half as
much to build as IRID and is profitable with only 400K users.
While IRID had to charge $1 per minute just to break even, GSTRF
has a cost of $0.05 including operating costs.
A satellite-based call for a nickel a minute??? Mmmm.... are you aware how much it costs to control a satellite constellation? And they can be profitable charging less than land-based systems? I would go through those numbers with a fine tooth comb if I was going to invest.
They have already
pre-sold $25 mln of time to wholesalers averaging $0.47 per
minute - 85% cash flow margin at peak use.
Their cost is five cents and they have pre-sold for 47 cents? Wonder why they charged that much, and why the customers paid that much? Maybe because it takes them much more than a nickel to break even?
Want more? It's
scalable so that when the system needs more capacity (around 7
mln users), more satellites can be added and ground equipment
changed without modifying the whole system.
You can not add individual satellites without unbalancing the constellation. What good would it do to add, say, 24 satellites into a 48-satellite constellation and have double coverage but only for half of the earth? And it is very expensive to move satellites around, especially into new orbital planes (which I would assume you would want to do to really scale this thing up by adding less than a full constellation)
Well, I'm out of here, I hope you are right and I am wrong, but I would need a lot more convincing before investing in this one. Having said that, if any LEO comm system is going to make it, GSTRF is better than the others, especially with CDMA. Good luck. |
