VALE: limit orders to sell, beginning at $23, 10% of my LT position every $1 further increase in the stock price. Reasons:
1. Iron ore at 220$/ton, an all-time record.
2. Stock at a resistance line going back to 2008.
3. In 2011, the last time things were this good:
$23 stock high
$180 iron ore price high
5.3 = 23/4.33 = PE high; today: 5.0
2.1 = 23/11.2 = P/S high; today: 2.1
So, valuation is at the 2011 high.
4. Large increases in supply will happen in 2022-2023. It is unlikely demand will increase as much. Many hi-cost mines have shut down during the years of low prices, especially in China. At current prices, these mines can be profitably reopened. It is easier to increase iron ore supply than other metals.
5. During downturns, iron ore troughs around $50. We will see those prices again (time very uncertain).
6. I would rather own silver, copper and other base metals at this time. I will be holding my FCX, PAAS, RIO, BBL. May add SCCO, others.
7. The stock market today smells like 2000, just as the tech mania peaked. No fear. Selling into irrational exuberance is a good idea.
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