Alex: I agree with your "perfect world" comment. I, like you, consider
VLNC a speculation, albeit a good one, that won't conclusively leave that
category(from my standpoint) until after COMMERCIAL acceptance of their
product. Acceptance hindges, of course, on those big IF's you mentioned.
If the current testing is going well I'd expect that to be reflected in some
sort of moderate price rise(and this is what has happened in recent days, ie
the recent runup). If the testing was going poorly I'd expect to see a
radical rolloff(this has not happened). So the appropriate guess as to
what's transpiring with that testing is........good?
Anyway, in light of zero news from company sources I'd expect VLNC to now
wallow sideways, with a slight downward bias associated with profit taking
done by those who just rode the recent ~2 point rise. Meanwhile, I feel that if they
are successful with your "IF's" then this means they'll have a product to
sell in a market looking for production sources. Klines "puff" piece
confirms that hypothesis in a round-about manner with its articulation
of the Asia communities buildout of facilities to accomodate similar production.
Consider this possibility: I submit that all the OEM's out there making
portable products are basically making the same "widget." They're vying
for market share with these similar products(ie. laptops, cellphones, PCS
type devices, automotive requirements, etc.). One of the main sticking points
of OEM's customers is the lifespan of those portable devices batteries. Any OEM
who can get to market first with a product whose battery last "longer" should
garner an increase in market share(all else being equal, of course). Therefore
OEM's would be looking for someone, anyone, who can provide them with a better
battery(if they don't build it themselves). Once they find one, and have conducted
the proper testing, I'd have to think they'd lock in as much production for
themselves as possible. It's this reasoning which makes me think VLNC has
a good shot at success, once again after they've surmounted your "IF's."
As to future shareholder value. Well, playing in the market tends to bring out
the seer/prophet in everyone. I try not to play that game. I'd be happy to see
them reach mid to high teens. That'd make for a nice profit, and profit is
profit!
Regards!
John~ |
