Analysis: Victory beckons U.S. troops
By Martin Walker
UPI Chief International Correspondent
From the International Desk
Published 4/2/2003 2:44 AM
CAMP DOHA, Kuwait, April 2 (UPI) -- Coalition forces were on the brink of a stunning military victory in the battle of Baghdad Wednesday, as U.S. troops drove forward from the southeast and southwest against slackening Iraqi resistance.
U.S. troops were pushing hard on two fronts Wednesday to outflank the five Iraqi Republican Guard divisions south of Baghdad and cut them off from the city in a classic encirclement battle that would force the surrounded Iraqi elite troops to surrender before they could fall back into the city.
U.S. Marines advancing from Kut captured "the last big bridge we need" across the river Tigris early Wednesday, and pushed on toward Baghdad through the collapsing defenses of the RG Baghdad division.
Meanwhile, the tanks of the 7th cavalry of the U.S. 3rd Division drove on to the north of Karbala as combat helicopters and A-10 'tankbuster' warplanes, operating from nearby captured Iraqi airfields, cleared the path for their advance through the shattered RG Medina division.
The new focus of the battle are the twin towns of Mahmudiyah and Musayyib, respectively 10 and 20 miles south of Baghdad on the main highway south from the capital toward Karbala and Najaf.
Taking these two towns, which requires seizing new crossings across the River Euphrates south of Fallujah, will cut the Republican Guard's line of retreat into the capital. Even if the two towns hold out, but come under coalition artillery fire, they could become an impassable bottleneck for the 60,000 RG troops if they try to retreat from their defensive lines to the south.
The struggle for these two towns is shaping up to be the last stand of the Republican Guard.
"The RG faces a terrible choice," a coalition staff officer told United Press International Wednesday. "They can stay where they are and get pounded by our air and artillery and die where they stand. Or they can try to fall back along the roads and get killed as they retreat."
The prospect of victory was clouded for the U.S. troops by the constant threat the Iraqi defenders might in desperation resort to chemical and biological weapons.
A stunning victory now beckons for the U.S. forces that would silence the critics inside and outside the Pentagon and vindicate the battle plan of coalition commander Gen. Tommy Franks. The defeat of the RG outside Baghdad would deprive the city of its best-trained potential defenders. This could have a dramatic impact on the much-feared siege of the city with its grim prospects of high civilian and U.S. casualties in street fighting.
"The mystery is why the Iraqis left the RG in defensive positions so far south of Baghdad," a British staff officer in Kuwait told UPI. "They must have known from Desert Storm what our air power could do. I can only assume that Saddam Hussein was worried about the loyalty of the RG if he pulled them back into the city. His priority has always been the survival of his own regime rather than the survival of his troops."
The key breakthrough into the Karbala gap came in two days of fighting Monday and Tuesday as the 3rd Division and the 101st Airborne worked together to break through the RG Medina division between Karbala and Hilla. Small teams of Airborne troops were helicoptered forward, behind enemy lines, to spot targets and call in airstrikes before the main assaults began.
A host of other battles along the way made the breakthrough possible. One crucial element was the capture of Iraqi airfields at Hilla and Karbala, and the ability of U.S. engineers and support troops to get them working and supplied again. These forward airfields meant that the ground troops were given non-stop support by airborne fire power, as the combat helicopters could refuel and reload just minutes from the battlefield.
Another important factor was the ability of the U.S. troops at Nasariyah and Najaf to fight off the Iraqi guerilla attacks on the stretched supply lines, guaranteeing an endless flow of fuel and ammunition, food and water, to the troops far ahead. Those grinding battles for the Euphrates bridges, which encouraged the Iraqi commanders to keep their RG divisions forward rather than pulling them back into Baghdad, were the essential pre-condition for the battle of Baghdad.
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