Keith,
Thanks for taking your time to read my posts. Well, to forecast a
rather long period of time will be involved many variables, but
still feasible.
First off, I personally believe as long as Apple's in Jobs and those
BOD's hands, nothing much will go down but up. So far, Jobs and
Gil have cleaned up the house which results in a mean, lean and very
competitive company. With Jobs' determination and will, Apple has
nowhere to go but moving up. Q1 has revealed the incredible results
and I believe Q2 will be even better. If Apple can prove it has a
remarkable Q2, then the rest of Q3 and Q4 will be easier to pick up
the market shares as it has proved in last January (#3 in retails).
In Q1 '99, Apple usually did pretty well in this consumer quarter.
We have passed the turning point (last quarter) and moved to the most
important quarter from streets analysts' views. And again, it will be
a lot better than anticipated in Q2.
From stock viewpoint, it is still undervalued if compared to Dell,
Gateway on the basis of PE, SE (total sales $ per earning) or margin
per earning. If based on Gateway current market value, Apple's price
should have been around 50+. Why isn't Apple adjusted by analysts? I
think all of them are waiting for Q2 report. If exceeding earnings in
two consecutive quarters become true, then I believe Apple will be
re-evaluated and the stock price will fly by that time (after April
15th). The rest of the quarters will follow.
It is hoped that Apple will select its CEO within 30 days or as
late as shareholders' meeting (April 22nd). If the right person is
picked, then the price will advance at least 10%-15% in a single day.
And, I believe that will be the case.
The coming new products with advanced G3's, Rhapsody, QuickTime, etc.,
along with direct sales, store-in-store strategies, the revenue and
market shares will gradually pick up, same as net incomes.
All in all, I speculate the price will be in the range of $40-$50
by the end of '98 if everything goes right.
Phil |
