Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: ajtj99 who wrote (89093)	10/24/2008 3:18:25 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 116555

A 5 handle is possible, but then if you follow the historical ratios, the Dow will go to 1,500. I do not think that is plausible. The most plausible scenario analysis I have come up with is an 8x multiple on the market which takes it to around 450-500 SPX. That will put gold in the 1500-2000 range. The copper and other things you mention are indeed a factor, but they too have a historical correlation to the price of gold so it all will even out eventually. Plus most of those stocks have been decimated and already trade at low single digit P/E's assuming huge hair cuts to existing spot prices. If you're brave enough to short Freeport McMoran here, then be my guest.

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