Just an analysis of some of the recent Mid-East political/military maneuvers with potentially substantial future impact.
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March 12, 1998
Middle East Realignment Spreads to the Caucasus
Azerbaijan's Defense Minister, Safar Abiyev, in an interview on Tuesday
with the Azerbaijani news agency Sharg, said that a draft defense
cooperation agreement between Baku and Athens could be blocked by "Greece's
collaboration with Armenia in the military sphere." Greece submitted the
draft agreement for Azerbaijani consideration and invited Abiyev to make an
official visit to Athens. Abiyev stated that Baku would have to decide
whether or not to sign the document before he made the as yet unscheduled
visit.
We have been monitoring the Middle East realignment, facing off Turkey and
Israel, with U.S. backing, against a Greek-Syrian-Russian centered bloc.
Greece has brought Armenia, traditional foe of Turkey, into its developing
alliance. Athens is now attempting to extend the anti-Turkey bloc still
farther into the Caucasus to include Azerbaijan. However, Baku's own
animosities lie in another direction, and they are not eager to support
their long-standing enemy, Armenia, no matter how indirectly. Should
Greece fail to entice Azerbaijan into an alliance, the opportunity arises
for Ankara to approach Baku.
The alliance-shifting that continues to dominate Middle Eastern diplomacy
is spreading to involve the Caucasus' conflicts. This inevitably
intersects the Central Asian oil pipeline issue, drawing in more directly
the Central Asian republics and, most significantly, Iran, already a major
player in the region. The Middle East realignment now stretches from Libya
to the Caspian, from Greece to Eritrea. This is getting interesting.
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Regards,
Ron |
