*AV*--Reply list to Steve Susko
The following is a list of stocks that I am now looking real close at. The list is longer than I like but is presented for review. None is to be considered a pick or recommendation. Instead lets look at them and narrow down the list. Here goes
PLAB-P/E less than 20 and is a necessary commodity to industry. Has been beaten down recently from $38. Aggressive upside is ~10%.
NETC-may have turned a corner today with its uptick. CS First Boston Downgraded this stock based on earnings extimates and the push out of their new pricing and added priced services. Analysts still beleive there could be a takeover down the road but are now concerned with possible declining subscribership. Possible over reaction. I see this possibly going back to 13 for a nice uptick and profit.
FSII-getting close to $15. If it breaks down below $15, I feel it could go to $12-13 and then claw its way back to ~$15.50. Watching and waiting for a breakdown.
WFR-prime semi commodity and I see wafer starts increasing and factories slowly increasing capacity. MeV implantation is now on back burner so epi sales are not too much in danger. More 8" silicon will be used this year. Excess capacity is a financial drain (depreciation) on all the new capacity they brought on line. As wafer starts rise, this capacity gets utilized and a quick reversal is possible within a few weeks. Looking for a breakdown below $25. Anything below that should be aggressively pursued and either held for mid to long term (6 months to a year) or a trade when it recovers to $28. Looking for $4 gain on a $24 entry.
ASMLF-even though I am an UTEK fan and hold it in high regard, these guys are getting ready to deliver their first Deep UV step and scan system along with shipping the new generation of Deep UV steppers. This is leading edge equipment for 0.25u and below technology. SVGI may be the only real US competitor based on SVGI/INTC arrangement. Stock is pricey at just below $70 and could break down to mid 60s. If it does, it could be a high priced 10% gainer. Itsa late right now and I cannot remember if we are talking about an emminent split. It is easy to verify. If there is a split in the near future, this may be a good place to be relative to performance after the split.
BYDS-may have finally turned the corner today on lots of positive volume. At $7 this could go to $10 easily based on product, royalties, coming into new season, and overreaction to some issues. I have already stuck my foot in my mouth on this one so no more will be said.
CYMI-these guys make the Deep UV power supplies for most of the top Deep UV steppers. Chart looks like INTC jr until recent breakdown. These guys are involved in the leading edge technology so when the industry goes to Deep UV mainstream, these guys are the key component supplier. Today, quite a few IC manufacturers have orders for the first sets of Deep UV steppers. This is the first wave and probably the reason for the fast run up of this stock over the past few months.
I am watching this very closely from $56 down to its present 40s waiting for a bottom to develop then re-evaluate whether I want to play here.
SVGI-going on sonar at $22. I really want to see this below $21 and hopefully to high teens. SVGI is going to sell INTC close to 50% of its Deep UV stepper capacity (~38 systems) at ~$7 million per system.
Orders are there but revenue has not been collected. As new fabs are built, SVGI will be delivering coat/develop and diffusion equipment. They are major players here and one of the top suppliers. Will be a great long term investment for the patient individual. Short term, after waiting and achieving $21 or less, it can make a nice run to $25 for roughly a 20% gain by summer(??)
NSCP-I am just watching it because it perplexes me. It was a darling stock that fell out of favor and may come back into favor. I just do not know so this is a whiney on the side view of what will happen. Probably should not be on list.
CHPS-this sucker is getting the volume and not the price movement. It took a major league dump and could erupt at anytime. At these prices, at 10-20% pop could occur the first time an institution, mutual fund, or analyst says anything worthwhile.
GPGI- this is a stock pick of someone else that I have been watching go down and down. I do not know if it has reached its low but when it does, a 10-20$ gain could happen anytime. No my area of competence or expertise. Need to scream real loud for the owner of this puppy and ask for a good TA read.
ONTK-this guy has crazy glue attached to it in the 22-25 range. This stock is like the movie DUNE, and when "The sleeper has awakened" it could take a good run. One of the few stocks that have not performed for me this year yet. Waiting for it to go sub ~21 but it will not cooperate.
ALYD-waiting for the commlink release of the radio program with the ALYD CEO. Since YR2000 stocks seem to repsond to press releases and news, why not ALYD. Only 1 of the 5 beta sites have reported results back and the transcript of the radio program has not be relased on the net. Therefore, with its slight pullback today, it could conceivably give us a 10-25% gain in the short term IF it reacts like other YR2000 stocks. Historically it has not but you never know.
This turns out to be a bakers dozen (13) but it should be easy to drop a few off the list. Sorry it is longer than I expected but my master list is now 85 stocks strong with more being added thanks to Kevin's and Webster's new finds. Theirs have been left off the list because it would only be a repeat of their analyses and information.
Regards
Andrew |
